Random thoughts #19

1. This says a lot about the nation's transit policy that a successful rail agency is in this position
2. When it comes to possible replacements at the Miami Airport Station in the wake of Amtrak's snub, the city and state couldn't go wrong by urging upstart Lunatrain to occupy the space
3. Ms. Christensen is spot on when it comes to the costly feasibility studies--sometimes, it seems as though they're done as a way of discouraging new passenger train service. In the recent past, it was Amtrak that conducted this practice in order to wave away states that wanted new or restored train service
4. The Northstar was set up to fail in Minnesota
5. After thinking it over the last couple of months, I now understand why the historic location in Palmer, MA was rejected, but it would have provided the perfect connectivity. Imagine traveling from Springfield on Compass Rail and transferring to the Central Corridor to continue onto Storrs, CT to watch a UConn basketball game. A direct Amtrak-New England Central transfer would have done wonders
6. Potential good news for a troubled commuter rail system
7. Some places get it and some don't
8. The current POTUS spent two out of the last three elections complaining about China having faster trains than America but has done next to nothing to catch up, and the Texas fiasco tells me all I need to know about what he really thinks about trains

Gulf Coast Service: The Latest

Recently, part of the Sunset East Route between Pensacola and Jacksonville was sold by CSX to RailUSA-owned Florida Gulf & Atlantic Railroad.

Just when railfans were trying to figure out what the sale meant for the odds of passenger service being restored, Mississippi Senator Roger Wicker announced that service will return to the western portion of the Sunset East Route between New Orleans and Mobile.

The catch is right there: Only the CSX portion of the Sunset East is involved. It would be up to FG&A to restore the easternmost portion and even then, there would still be a gap between Mobile and Pensacola because neither Alabama nor Florida has shown an interest in restoring passenger service. If only the affected states (Louisiana, which is also paying for the restored service, is the fourth state involved) had actually talked to SNCF, that portion of the country would already have some kind of passenger service. After all, it was Virgin's interest in a Charlotte-Atlanta route for example that forced Amtrak to look at that same area for expansion earlier this year. Had SNCF tapped Keolis to run the 620-mile route, it may have motivated Amtrak management to at least restore the Sunset Limited or produce an entirely new route.

So, what we'll end up with is a third incarnation of the Gulf Coast Limited--the first one ran in the mid 1980s and the second one ran in from mid 1996 to mid 1997. The second version didn't even operate on a flipped schedule vis-à-vis the Sunset Limited--Train #24 operated about two hours earlier than #2 while #23 operated 2-3 hours earlier than #1. That said, an opportunity arises where dueling roundtrips could provide consistent ridership. Not to mention, a revived Gulf Breeze that is extended to the Crescent City should also be on the table after 2021.

2018 Midterms and Rail

Here are my rapid fire responses to the midterms and their impact on passenger rail.

West Coast
CA: The incoming governor may shift which segments of CAHSR get built next. When it comes to the main opponents of the project, two out of the three are gone—Valadao and Denham lost their House races but McCarthy will become the new House Minority Leader.

Southwest
NM: Here’s to hoping that Michelle Lujan Grisham is vastly more pro-rail than her predecessor.

Midwest
MN: Maybe the second Chicago-Twin Cities frequency will accelerate now.
WI: Governor No Train is finally ousted and he lost based on a rule that he created that prevented a recount by a certain margin. Serves him right.
IA: Kim Reynolds holding onto the governor’s mansion and soon to be serving a full term means that a Quad Cities-Omaha extension will be off the table for at least another four years.
IL: Once the Quad Cities route gets up and running, the question is which route will be next on the agenda. The Black Hawk revival? Rockford service? Something else?
OH: Oh dear, Mike DeWine had the most ambiguous position out of the four gubernatorial candidates in regards to transit needs, which may mean the status quo in Columbus.

Southeast
AL: Earlier this year, Kay Ivey passed on providing money to reviving the Mobile-New Orleans Gulf Coast Limited route. That seemed to conclude a spat between the governor and the Southern Rail Commission but a couple of weeks later, advocates pressed forward with building a new station in Mobile. Ivey got elected to a full term but is less inclined to even support any type of passenger rail than her predecessor, who at least explored the possibility of a PPP before an impeachment threat forced him to step down.
GA: As to what the new governor will do in advancing passenger rail, your guess is as good as mine. If anything, Georgians may be better off hoping that Sir Richard’s venture serves the Atlanta-Charlotte market in the interim.
FL: It will be up to the public to push Ron DeSantis to implement a statewide rail system to connect Floridians. Over the past six or so years, region after region has expressed its interest in reviving rail service in some capacity. Now is the time to not only provide a system but to also prove that a state can develop on without Amtrak. Don’t just leave everything to Brightline/Virgin.
NC: Roy Cooper can now veto rail-unfriendly legislation, which would be a sigh of relief for mass transit.

Northeast
CT: We shall see if the new governor is more open to funding the Housatonic and New England Central routes now that the Hartford Line is finally up and running. 
MA: Conversely, we’ll also see if Charlie Baker and the legislature are able to produce any new routes in the Bay State.
ME: Hopefully, the Pine Tree State will move out of its neutral position and develop more routes.

Tackling the Headlines 96

Ford may buy Michigan Central Station
Take: While having a dedicated tenant is better than having the absentee family, I am worried if the automaker gets MCS that passenger access will be permanently cut off.

Saratoga & North Creek is going out of business
Take #1: I'll start off with this quote: "So Ellis way be right about his new outfit, but he may also be wrong, and it's worth waiting a while before hailing his new effort as a success." I have to give this person a prize because I was way too optimistic about S&NC.

Take #2: This all stems from the railroad not being able to operate freight service, which is a real shame.

SNCF opposes Texas Central's plan
1. The French operator says that the spinoff of JR Central would "doom" passenger rail in Texas
2. Texas Central hits back at SNCF

Take: On one end, SNCF has a point about TX Central's routing but on the other end, it was the feds who imposed the restrictions on where TX Central could place its Houston station. It brings up some good points, but, ultimately, it may come off as sour grapes by others.

SNCF has to worry about its own backyard
Take: Just like everywhere else in EU countries, the French operator has to prepare for competitors.

Another year of profits
Finland and Germany

Take: This is the second year in a row now. At this point, anyone in the rail community who utters "no country in the world makes money on passenger rail" will be trivialized and then ignored.

Empire State happenings 2

NYC Regional Rail/A new station in Queens?

The first real crime is the fact that no one thought of connecting Hoboken to Lower Manhattan early last century when it didn't cost an arm and a leg. The second one is that no one in charge has even considered third primary NYC commuter station (sorry, 125th Street). The Sunnyside station could go a long way in relieving some congestion, and it won't cost as much money as the proposals to reroute selected LIRR trains to Grand Central.

The Second Avenue Subway's costs

This definitely goes in the "this is why America can't have nice things" department.

Reduced service for upstate residents

Bad news that matches everything else Iowa Pacific has gone through since the calendar changed. 

Tackling the Headlines 82

Long distance competition at last?
On Wednesday, the FRA finally complied with Section 205 of the FAST Act and set the standards for bidding on long distance routes

TL;DR analysis: For once, the FRA is following the law on time. I want to see what the Ed Ellises and the AIPROs of the world do with overnight routes. 

Full analysis: Go to Tumblr.

More destaffings
Recently, Amtrak has been turning staffed stations into unstaffed stations. Now, Homewood, IL and Wolf Point, MT have been added.  

Take #1: I seriously wonder if Joe Boardman has enacted some kind of a scorched earth policy on his way out. The rash of destaffings and stripping the Silver Star of its dining cars come to mind as possible ways the lame duck Amtrak president is getting back at a lot of people. The latter act is also justification for the FRA's actions a couple of days ago.

Take #2: I am also getting tired of know it all railfans justifying small towns and suburban locations losing agents. Not everybody has access to technology and not everyone wants to handle computers. That mentality is exactly why so-called "flyover country" is in open rebellion against city folks. Instead of reducing staffed stations, a responsible company would be adding staffed stations.

Alabama rising?
Earlier this month, news broke that Corridor Capital was planning a regional rail system for Alabama and two other states and headquarters in Montgomery. As it turned out, Alabama media ran with this story big time. However, last Friday's NARP's newsletter poured cold water on exactly who was backing Corridor Capital's efforts. The Southern Rail Commission not only denied supporting CorrCap but also decided to stress how it was working with Amtrak among others.

Take #1: I had to reread the stories from the Alabama press and not once did I ever get any idea that CorrCap was even mentioned as an operator.

Take #2: A comment on the Trains Magazine page on the SRC's disavowal of CorrCap says it all: "So I guess if you are a private sector entity seeking improved passenger rail service the politicians don't want you." When I said that advocacy groups needed to adapt to a post-monopoly era rather than going all in with Amtrak, I didn't think that I'd have to also apply this to the states but given this development and Minnesota picking Amtrak to run the Northern Lights Express even though the planned second Chicago-Twin Cities frequency won't serve Minneapolis, I guess I have to.

Take #3: I wonder if NARP got into the SRC's ear and told them to distance themselves from Corridor Capital given how attached to Amtrak NARP really is.

Take #4: There is no excuse for the New Orleans-Orlando route to still be "suspended" after 10 1/2 years! If someone else can come along and get something going, that group should be commended not ridiculed the way CorrCap is now.

Take #5: Going back to Mr. Norton's comments in the Trains article, he's right on. The Floridian (1971-79), Gulf Breeze (1990-95), and the Gulf Coast Limited (1984-85 & 96-97) have all come and gone. If an entrepreneur is trying to provide a service that is absent and the only thing the current operator is doing is subjecting states to endless feasibility studies, sooner or later, the public will have to go with the person who is thinking outside of the box.

St. Louis Union Station excursions
Links can be found here, here, and here.

Take: Until non-Amtrak operators are allowed to run overnight trains and America gets serious about European-style high speed rail, this might be as good as it gets. But at least, Union Station is finally being used for its original purpose 38 years after Amtrak left.

A brighter future for an Upstate New York shortline

Recently, the Saratoga & North Creek's contract was extended for another five years, and local leaders are exploring the possibility of extending rail service 37 miles south to Albany-Rensselaer. An extension would not only allow passengers to have guaranteed connections between the S&NC and Amtrak--more likely to be Empire Service trains--but also a one seat ride from the capital to the North Country (this summer will mark the second year in a row that northbound connections will be impossible without an overnight stay in Saratoga).

If the extension is proven to be feasible, then, there could come a time where passengers traveling to or from destinations north of Saratoga Springs won't have to rely on an Upstate transfer between Amtrak and the S&NC at all because a fantasy could turn into a reality.

Tackling the Headlines 76

Tri-Rail rolls out service at Miami International Airport transit hub
Take: It's now up to Amtrak once the road work is complete.

Dallas’ new streetcar begins service between downtown, Oak Cliff
Take: Perhaps, the folks in the nation's capital ought to be taking notes on how it should properly plan a streetcar.

Railroad losing $1 million plus annually on Warren County line 
Take: The story points out how the tracks were unused for three decades and that Iowa Pacific had to rebuild them for Saratoga & North Creek. How anyone on message boards be gloating about S&NC unable to make a profit is upsetting to this writer.

Senate Bill Targeting Bullet Train Project Advances
Take: Chalking this one to ignorance and the Lone Star State's anti-auto alternatives attitude.

Portland-Eugene Cascades Service May Disappear
Take: If Oregon can't figure this one out, then passenger service just may be doomed.

Tackling the Headlines 75

Passenger train service between Ann Arbor and Traverse City being discussed
Take: Should the study get the green light, the shortline operator should be tapped to run trains along the route.

Study to extend Keystone Service to Pittsburgh
There's a lively debate over at Trainorders concerning the cost.

Take: It is ridiculous that it should come anywhere close to $1 billion let alone $10 billion to just produce additional frequencies especially when host Norfolk Southern concluded a decade ago that it would only cost $140 million for two additional frequencies. One has to wonder what the previous administration in Harrisburg was up to with the extremely high cost of that feasibility study.

Oklahoma’s Amtrak service facing funding shortfall
Take: Uh, what happened to the state and Texas possibly contracting this route to another operator? The hosts only want Amtrak on their rails argument is being used by a copout by Oklahoma.

Tackling the Headlines 69

Passenger rail study moves forward

Take: The next step will be the actual report itself. One more step before the Santa Cruz area gets connected to commuter and intercity rail and makes San Jose a true rail hub.

House GOP bill would force Amtrak to rethink its insane boarding process

Take: Anything that forces Amtrak to act less than an airline and more than a railroad is fine with me.

Sacramento Siemens plant to build Florida high-speed rail cars

Take: Huh? I thought that Corridor Capital had AAF's equipment in the bag.

Northeast shortline news

Housy
Last week, the Massachusetts DOT actually bought the Houstatonic line. The move demonstrates that the state is serious about wanting passenger service restored. Now, it's up to Connecticut to do its part--although, it may be busy with its own ideas for restoring passenger service to a long-neglected route.

S&NC
The folks in upstate New York want the popular Saratoga & North Creek service extended south to the capital region. I say, good luck with the plans since there are two Class I railroads that the Class III would have to go through before a southward extension can take place. 

Friends of the Eastern Flyer updates

It's good news-bad news in the Sooner State:

The good

The OK DOT selected Watco to operate the Oklahoma City-Tulsa rail line last month. As a result, Iowa Pacific will provide train service between the two areas, possibly as early as November. Initially, there will be shuttle buses that will serve the two cities, but actual train service to OKC and the capital could happen if the pilot project is successful.

The bad

The Tulsa-OKC study continues to be evaluated. It seems as if the state is determined to commit death by feasibility study for this particular corridor, which shouldn't take two years to complete.

Life Under Section 209: Operations

Equal Operator Model
Amtrak operates part of an existing corridor but other companies run trains on a corridor’s extension.

How It Could Work: Amtrak runs the first leg of the Southeast High Speed Rail route and the Piedmont Corridor but Veolia operates the Charlotte-Atlanta and Atlanta-Jacksonville legs of SEHSR while Herzog runs the Raleigh-Jacksonville route.

Amtrak Dominant Model
Amtrak operates an entire high speed route or existing corridor while other short distance routes are handed off to private operators.

How It Could Work: Amtrak runs the entire SEHSR system while the Piedmont is handed off to the North Carolina Railroad. The Southeastern states turn to AIPRO members for non-corridor service.

METRA Model
The state DOT contracts passenger service to the railroads that own infrastructure. This is more likely to work with regional and shortline operators than with the Class I railroads.

How It Could Work: The state of Maine contracts out new passenger services to the various Class II and III railroads rather than to any passenger operator.

Amtrak Recessive Model
No one operator would have a majority of routes in a particular region but Amtrak's share would be less than 50%.

How It Could Work: After a brutal bidding process in California, Amtrak is left with only the Pacific Surfliners while Keolis runs the Capitols, Herzog wins the San Joaquins contract, and foreign operators run high speed rail routes.

Disrupters, Innovators & Rent Seekers in Rail

Introduction

The purpose of this post is to demonstrate how disruptions, innovations, and rent seeking apply to the world of passenger rail just like it does to any other form of business.

Here are some examples of business disruptions. Such actions have resulted in life being much better for society today. 

Rent seeking is the yang to disruption's yin. As Steve Blank says about this counterbalance:  

Rent seekers are individuals or organizations that have succeeded with existing business models and look to the government and regulators as their first line of defense against innovative competition… Rent seekers spend money to increase their share of an existing market instead of creating new products or markets…

Overhauling the Paradigm Could Make the Passenger Train Thrive Once Again

Here are some possible scenarios of how passenger rail could drastically change for the better:

• Operators provide multiple classes of service--beyond today's coach, business, first classes
• Premium and specialty food service on trains
• New operators using historic stations in major cities that are currently commuter only or have no meaningful Amtrak service
• Train tickets that include non-rail connections and transfers between multiple stations in the same city
• Rail operators providing other services at stations, like real estate agencies 
• Private industry like travel agencies and cruise companies getting into the world of passenger rail
• Expanded Auto Train service, regardless of operator
• Some ideas for unconventional rail travel Jon Fostik and I separately proposed a few years ago
• All-sleeper trains that are affordable but also offer premium rates
• The recent move by the feds to allow Caltrain to use European style equipment on U.S. tracks
• Different ways to finance passenger rail given that politicians aren't readily receptive to funding trains

Who Are Passenger Rail's Innovators Today?

Passenger rail ridership in America is at its highest in decades but most expansion plans to draw even more riders are stuck at the station due to congressional gridlock. There are disagreements over whether Amtrak—and by default, the public sector—should continue its role as a monopoly operator or if other carriers—some of whom are privately run—should be allowed to compete.

In the midst of the fight over passenger policy, there are several renegades who are not waiting for Congress or the White House to set new laws. In the last three years, Iowa Pacific has emerged as a potential shortline powerhouse by planning and providing passenger service to areas that hadn't carried people in decades while Florida East Coast’s All Aboard Florida has laid the groundwork for passenger service in 2015. 

Meanwhile in Amtrak's own backyard, Housatonic and New England Central have plans to provide service to cities that are underserved by the national carrier.

Last year, two different companies provided plans to run private service between Portland, ME and Montreal--one during the day, the other, at night. For years, the feds have included a Boston-Montreal route as part of a national high speed rail system, but the problem is that HSR money has dried up and even if it hadn't, there would have been some serious disagreements over where the route should go (via the Downeaster/western ME, central NH or Springfield, MA/Vermonter).

The Roadblocks to Innovation

Just as there are people who are thinking beyond an Amtrak (-only) world, there are many others who aren't willing to give up the existing order without a fight:

• The aviation and highway lobbies along with their allies like think tanks and politicians
• The Class I railroads and the AAR's Amtrak only stance
• Amtrak management's complacency (continued focus on the NEC at the expense of its other routes)
• Rail activists who support the status quo and oppose competition
• Amtrak friendly politicians who resist meaningful changes for the national carrier (NJ Transit & politicians and the Northeastern congressional delegation)
• A segment of the rail community that is opposed to lighter equipment being used because they allege that the European cars are "too dangerous" despite the fact that bulky equipment currently used on U.S. rails has its own safety issues
• True Believers who think that giving more money to Amtrak is the answer while failing to realize that the agency's management is too focused on the Northeast
• The FRA's inane standards on things like equipment crash-worthiness 

How Rent Seeking Is Blocking a 21st Century Rail Renaissance

I will now provide some examples of how rent seeking behavior is hurting the cause for passenger rail by responding to three of Blank's quotes:

Instead of offering better products or better service at lower prices, rent seekers hire lawyers and lobbyists to influence politicians and regulators to pass laws, write regulations and collect taxes that block competition.

When foreign operators devised plans to run HSR in late 2009 and early 2010, Amtrak was forced to create an HSR department just to keep up.

Amtrak president Joe Boardman sent a letter to four congressional leaders to impose burdens on some of these would-be HSR competitors by playing the liability card.

In 2012, the Senate proposed three provisions that would have stunted competition. Amtrak claimed plausible deniability because Senator Durbin and Majority Leader Reid took the brunt for proposing such foolishness. It wasn't coincidental that the move was directed at the very operators that have constantly outbid Amtrak on commuter contracts and formed the Association of Independent Passenger Rail Operators in 2011 to bid on intercity routes.

When companies are protected from competition, they have little incentive to cut costs or to pay attention to changing customer needs.

The Tea Party backlash of 2010 led Amtrak to primarily focus on the Northeast Corridor without much detail to the rest of the system. Remember, the non-NEC states are paying Amtrak for Section 209.

The FRA’s foot dragging on Section 214 provisions led Amtrak to tell three states to pay for a non-corridor train or lose service in 2016. That lax federal enforcement has also led Amtrak management to not make any serious efforts to provide additional equipment for the Western long distance trains.

The national operator is planning to completely phase out its remaining Heritage fleet while providing no additions to its eastern long distance capacity and completely neglecting inactive Superliners. Rumor has it is that Amtrak would rather scrap its older equipment than see other companies use it for state-sponsored services. 

Startups, investors and the public have done a poor job of calling out the politicians and regulators who use the words “innovation means jobs” while supporting rent seekers.

The Nightmare Scenario or the possibility of Amtrak only running overnight routes (plus the NEC) would stifle any hopes for reviving passenger rail in this country yet most rail advocates haven’t gotten this message, choosing instead to support the near monopoly.

On the other hand, it’s to the AIPRO’s credit that it got a jump start in challenging the rent seeking activities by pointing out the regulatory burdens. Now, someone needs to point the following out to the unions: If they are opposed to non-Amtrak operators, then they are in effect opposed to more jobs.

Conclusion

Innovation has helped other businesses and can help passenger rail—if entrepreneurs are allowed to. Rent seekers are around the corner and will seek to keep the laws as they are. If this latter group succeeds, then the public will be the biggest losers as America would continue to have mediocre rail service, and anti-rail forces will then continue to mock passenger trains as "outdated."

Tackling the Headlines 61

FL governor to fund Orlando airport intermodal station

Take: It's a change from his stance three years ago. Of course, he's also funding the terminal because he has taken a lot of beating for being more fixated on roads than rail. Whatever the case, this is nothing but a huge plus.

A couple of news items from Oklahoma 

The OK DOT has reduced the number of bidders for the Oklahoma City-Tulsa rail line from four to two: Watco-owned Stillwater Central Railroad and previous owner BNSF. At the same time, Iowa Pacific has laid down the gambit by providing a concrete plan to operate passenger service in a letter to Governor Mary Fallin even though his company missed the final cut.

Take: The ball is your court, Oklahoma. Neither the governor nor the DOT can now say that "no one will ride the the train" because ample evidence has been provided to the contrary. If that line is uttered, then, it's a clear signal on how anti-rail the state really is.

Hawaii rail project clears final hurdle

Take: The 50th state will soon have regularly scheduled rail service, which is really good news for all.

Group wants return of passenger rail, others have doubts

Take: Given that South Carolina is a "small government" state, it would be in the advocates' best interest to also talk to other passenger operators via a competitive bidding process in order to hold down costs.

About that Germany-UK service...

Delivery delays have now led to Deutsche Bahn to put the Frankfurt-London service on hold while it focuses on providing services to Brussels and Paris instead.

Take: This is a major blow to the EU's plans to open up the rails to international travel.

Nutmeg State's Central Corridor

It's almost TIGER time again, so Eastern Connecticut leaders have made a full-court press by getting Congressman Joe Courtney to lobby the feds to get funding for the Central Corridor this year.

Take: Now, the other pols in the area need to get onboard. After all, the clock is ticking for passengers in Amherst who currently take the Vermonter.

A pivotal moment for Oklahoma

Last week, the state of Oklahoma officially put up the 97.5 miles of rail line it owns for sale and received bids from four companies:

1. BNSF, from whom the state bought the line in 1998
2. Watco Companies, which has trackage rights on parts of the route 
3. Iowa Pacific Holdings, which is jointly operating the Eastern Flyer with Watco-owned Stillwater Central Railroad 
4. Fortress Incorporated, owner of All Aboard Florida and Florida East Coast 

The Eastern Flyer sold out at the end of last year and is scheduled to make two more roundtrips between the Oklahoma City and Tulsa metro areas this month following Sunday's inaugural run. The state would be crazy to jeopardize the possibility of private entities running passenger trains

Some reports quote groups who have suggested that the private effort is somehow an affront to plans of extending the Heartland Flyer from Oklahoma City to Wichita via Newton, KS. There is no need for the zero-sum mentality has to stop because there's no reason why the Heartland Flyer couldn't coexist with the Eastern Flyer one bit. How the state is willing to sell the line by April or May yet not be done with a separate feasibility study for Oklahoma City-Tulsa route until mid 2015 is perplexing to me.

Dreams of Passenger Rail's Future

The title is from the December 2013 edition of Railfan & Railroad Magazine's Capitol Lines column written by Wes Vernon. The column was based on last year's Passenger Trains on Freight Railroads Conference where four panelists involved in the railroad industry gave their visions on the future of passenger rail in America. 

The panelists were railroad attorney John Heffner, All Aboard Florida's Gene Skoropowksi (formerly of California's Capitol Corridor), Iowa Pacific's Ed Ellis, and Amtrak VP for Governments and Corporate Communications Joe McHugh.

"More cohesion instead of the piecemeal routings here and there. The entire picture is likely less monolithic or under one entity known as Amtrak." (Heffner) 

Vernon interjected by suggesting that Amtrak remains "the 'spine' of intercity operations." Even with the failed attempt to leverage intercity and commuter rail back towards an Amtrak monopoly, "business as usual" can no longer be considered good enough for travelers.

Regarding PRIIA, Vernon looked at the possibility of states looking to private operators if they can't find alternative public funding, which in turn could lead Amtrak to using more of its equipment on longer routes. 

Once those PRIIA extensions that were signed last year expire, the states should make a serious effort to talk to other operators to reduce the cost of running their corridors. As far as the equipment goes, I have been a huge advocate of Amtrak keeping its equipment in the event states look elsewhere so that it can spread to other parts of the country.

Heffner says that there is no end to potential nationwide expansion, possibly a combination of Amtrak and non-Amtrak operators, some under contract to state or regional government agencies. It may be freight railroads, perhaps short lines or regionals deciding to just run their own passenger service. (Vernon)

There can be no end to expansion because America still has a skeletal system and other various other entities could be the key to reviving the national network.

The dream scenario leaves Amtrak as (again) the operator of most, if not all, long-distance trains. On the Northeast Corridor, Amtrak would remain the only operator other than the commuter lines. (Vernon)

A dream for who? Maybe that's a True Believer's dream scenario but as long as the current people (board and management alike) continue to run Amtrak, this is much closer to my Nightmare Scenario. President/CEO Joe Boardman and various board members have done nothing to advance long-distance trains. If anything, they're either willing to keep the status quo or see the long-distance network shrink by inaction. 

When Amtrak gets fresh blood who just won't have a dismissive attitude about expansion (i.e., always citing high costs and passing on adding routes) and is willing to consider Western passengers' needs by ordering new equipment, then will I believe that "America's Railroad" is committed to the nation as opposed to just one region.

Speaking of that one region, the NEC states' political bloc will likely use their clout to keep out anyone who may want to take on Amtrak.

Vernon cited how the shortlines are trying to get into the passenger business due to limited expansion opportunities for freight in the future.

The shortlines are proactive while the big boy railroads are reactive. The Class I railroads are focused on their specific needs and have to be goaded into dealing with passenger service (see Amtrak throwing in the towel on talking to CSX about converting the Cardinal to daily service as just one example).

The shortlines could also play the role of saviors when it comes to routes/segments/towns that are abandoned by Amtrak.

Addendum: Circa 2016 BNSF Transcon vs Raton Pass Schedules

To follow up on the last post, I have provided some schedules that result in a win-win situation for everybody involved. The first one is of the Southwest Chief rerouted onto BNSF's Transcon Route.

3	Amtrak	4
15:00	Chicago                          CT	15:15
22:45	Kansas City	7:43
0:29	Topeka	5:18
2:45	Newton	2:59
3:40	Wichita	2:09
4:30	Wellington, KS	1:19
5:53	Alva, OK	23:35
7:09	Woodward, OK	22:21
9:23	Pampa, TX	19:59
10:30	Amarillo, TX	19:08
10:50		18:48
11:37	Hereford, TX                CT	17:54
11:40	Clovis, NM                   MT	15:58
F13:42	Vaughn, NM	F13:53
15:52	Belen, NM	12:08
16:02		11:58
21:21	Flagstaff                         MT	6:35
3:03	Barstow                          PT	22:50
4:56	San Bernardino	19:53
7:39	Los Angeles                   PT	18:09

The times between Newton and Belen are based on the Santa Fe's San Francisco Chief in 1965.

The second batch of schedules are what could happen if the residents along the affected portion of the Southwest Chief are able to talk to another operator like a shortline or an independent operator. Instead of one train a day in each direction, there will be at least three frequencies because residents between Hutchinson and Albuquerque could also start building the foundation of a Rocky Mountain rail system by proposing Newton-La Junta-Denver and Albuquerque-Trinidad-Denver services and localized Raton Pass runs that would serve fewer cities at more marketable times.

1001	1003	1005	Rocky Mountain Rail	1002	1004	1006
2:45	10:45	18:45	Newton                                               CT	18:55	2:55	10:55
3:20	11:20	19:20	Hutchinson, KS	18:19	2:19	10:19
5:25	13:25	21:25	Dodge City, KS	16:27	0:27	8:27
6:21	14:21	22:21	Garden City, KS                               CT	15:17	23:17	7:17
6:59	14:59	22:59	Lamar, CO                                        MT	12:40	20:40	4:40
8:15	16:15	0:15	La Junta, CO	11:41	19:41	3:41
8:20	16:20	0:20		11:36	19:36	3:36
9:40	17:40	1:40	Trinidad, CO	9:39	17:39	1:39
10:46	18:46	2:46	Raton, NM	8:40	16:40	0:40
12:28	20:28	4:28	Las Vegas, NM	6:53	14:53	22:53
14:14	22:14	6:14	Lamy, NM	5:07	13:07	21:07
16:00	24:00	8:00	Albuquerque	3:47	11:47	19:47
16:40	0:40	8:40	Belen                                                   MT	3:07	11:07	19:07

I have cut the dwell times in La Junta and Albuquerque to five minutes. As far connections go, #3 to #1001 and #1004 to #4 are guaranteed for anyone traveling between Chicago and Albuquerque. Anyone who wants to travel to Arizona and points west could use #1005, a local Raton Pass run, or a Denver-Albuquerque/Rail Runner combo.