Decentralizing Amtrak?

The FRA Long Distance Service Study could lead to the separation of Amtrak's three business units, but the question for me is whether it will be a voluntary or involuntary one.

Involuntary Splitting

In the case of the latter, it could happen during the next passenger rail reauthorization bill once the current bill expires in 2026. The fiasco around the Biden Administration nominating way too many Northeastern representatives onto the Amtrak Board to the point where a Western senator from his own party had to block said nominees could only be the beginning. Assuming that there is no change in the House and the Senate flips next year, I could see a Republican Congress being all too happy to strip powers from Stephen Gardner.

Under this formal separation, the NEC and other adjacent parts of the Northeastern states would continue to be run by Gardner but the rest of Amtrak would be in the hands of someone who will make every destination west of Harrisburg, PA and south of Washington, D.C. matter.

Voluntary Splitting

The other option would require an incredible amount of self-awareness from the current Amtrak management and/or Board that is seriously lacking at this moment. In other words, an informal separation would happen due to either Amtrak leadership or the Board realizing that the company is stretched thin due to a number of factors: an overemphasis on the NEC at the expense of the rest of the country, the expansion of long-distance routes as recommended by the FRA, equipment breakdowns/shortages, etc.

As a result, someone would be tasked to run the overnight routes on a laissez-fare basis while Gardner and others would then focus on Amtrak's other units and equipment orders.

Conclusion

Given the pending competition that will be coming after Brightline, Amtrak risks falling behind if it doesn't revamp, so either option would be in its best interest.

How the Dutch Model Could Work Here

The Background

Applying the Dutch Model to Each Amtrak Business Unit

The Northeast Corridor

The NEC is the U.S. equivalent of the Main Line Network. The logistics and politics would at very best require major compromises. Under the Dutch Model, Amtrak would keep the service via a no-bid contract but in exchange for that exclusivity, track and infrastructure would be transferred to a new USDOT entity--nullifying any false claims of the NEC being "privatized" once and for all.

That infrastructure company would be responsible for restoring the 457-mile route back to acceptable shape, leaving Amtrak to exclusively focus on running trains (let's face it, the 1976 decision to burden Amtrak with NEC ownership has been a bane on passenger rail). 

State-Supported Routes

For routes under 750 miles, the tender system will be used and applied to individual states, multistate compacts and California's Joint Powers Authorities. These routes would be put up for bid for contracts ranging anywhere from five to 10 years, and the commuter rail model could also be worth a look.

This would allow these entities more freedom to explore other companies who could expand and vastly improve service in ways that are currently unimaginable. The West Central Wisconsin Rail Coalition is currently doing a version of competitive bidding with its proposed Eau Claire-Twin Cities service which last saw passenger service six decades ago.

If enough states use the tender system, innovations from the most ambitious of these companies could largely render the Amtrak Connects US plan obsolete outside of Virginia (has a 30-year contract), Illinois (home to the Chicago Hub), Michigan (only place outside of the NEC where Amtrak has track rights) and parts of Southern California (Pacific Surfliners and future Coachella Valley and Las Vegas routes).

Long-Distance Routes

The overnight trains should be handled via the open access model. In addition to the FRA's Long Distance Service Study being utilized, other companies would run overnight service on the track via intense negotiations and assuming full responsibility. 

Two potential examples are Dreamstar Lines and the Southeast Passenger Rail Initiative. The former plans to launch an overnight route between Los Angeles and San Francisco (in the mold of the SP's Lark route) while the latter is a rail advocacy group pushing for the Nightjet model, which would provide express or semi-express services throughout the Southeast.

CNBC on CAHSR's troubles

 

The lack of a champion

In the latest sign of how the U.S. is no longer willing to do bold things, the first leg of the CAHSR line, a portion of the 119-mile segment between Bakersfield and Merced is now scheduled to open between 2030 and 2033. This will come after the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles. Instead of the usual environmental reviews, lawsuits and various interests trying to kill the project as well as relative indifference from Governor Gavin Newsom, this route needed a champion as laid out by an advocate two years ago.

A different approach was needed

The portion between 13:40 and 14:05 is probably the most vital part of the video. Bent Flyvberg is technically correct in a sense that the segments connecting Los Angeles and San Francisco should have been the first two to open. Think about it, the latter was technically a part of a pair of Initial Operating Segment schedules in a past business plan by the CAHSR Authority alongside Merced-Bakersfield. The Authority should have just gone ahead and put out some DB schedules upon the completion of the Caltrain Electrification Project and then started the work between San Jose and Merced.

Meanwhile on the other end, building the Los Angeles-Bakersfield segment would have gotten more bang for the buck as it would have also ended more than half a century of no train service between the two cities (back in the early 2000s, Union Pacific rejected a plan to extend San Joaquin train service to L.A. via the Tehachapi Pass).

Speaking about the Danish expert being "technically" correct, the Merced-Bakersfield IOS is as a political thing as the HSR route skipping I-5. I'll take a further step and say that it mirrors Florida HSR's ill-fated attempt to build Tampa-Orlando before Miami-Orlando--a mistake that was only corrected by Brightline's parent company owning tracks and right of way between Miami and the Orlando Airport.

Mastodon

Given what Twitter is, I have avoided it from the beginning but in the four years since Google shut down Google Plus, I have been on the lookout for a suitable replacement. Currently, Diaspora has been what I've been using. However, I've been using it less and less as railfans have been difficult to find on that forum.

Around last summer, some rail advocates launched a rail-oriented server on Mastodon, and it looks like it's future-proof.

As a result, follow me at https://rail.chat/@therailenthusiast to keep up with short-form views.

Random thoughts #16

1. The FRA Long-Distance Study is definitely a nice start, but the whole thing of Amtrak being the only operator of the revived routes rubs me the wrong way (entities like AIPRO operators partnering with other companies as part of my rail consortium should also be a part of new long distance routes). That issue aside, I am willing to give this a shot because adding back some long distance routes is something that should have been done more than a decade ago. Existing areas should be amplified and other regions without service should be represented so people aren't forced to make lengthy transfers to New York, D.C. or Chicago.
2. The feds could be forcing Amtrak to focus more on overnight routes than state-supported routes, which would reorient the company into focusing on serving the entire nation rather than just the Northeast. 
3. Another thing about this possible decentralization of Amtrak is that a future Congress could split Amtrak into two or three units and that Stephen Gardner or his successor could subsequently be the leader of only the Northeast Corridor once competition for intercity services is underway while the long distance person ends up being more tuned into the overnight trains.
4. There's no excuse for North America not being more electrified.
5. Ever since the threat of a rail strike loomed back in the fall, there have been calls to nationalize the railroads with one YouTuber even wanting the feds to recreate Conrail at the Class I level. I've been mixed on the idea. I've long understood that railroads are businesses first, but on the other hand, the major railroads have shot themselves in the foot way too many times--lobbying to keep a late 1860s braking system in place rather than adjusting to the 21st century, Precision Scheduled Railroading, the sick day fiasco that almost led to the railworkers striking in the first place.
6. Regarding the station situation in Jacksonville, the Regional Transit Center opened in May 2020 to buses and the elevated Skyway trains. The JTA and FDOT have discussed moving Amtrak closer to downtown since the late '00s. The city's proposed commuter services list the JRTC as the downtown location rather than the Prime Osborn Center. 
7. Speaking of the Osborn Center, the city has deemed the site of the historic Union Terminal as too small given that Jacksonville has lost out on events to cities the size of Daytona Beach. The city is pondering a new, larger convention center.
8. Once the City of Jacksonville has a new convention center in place, it will be possible for both Union Terminal and the JRTC to host passenger rail. Union Terminal: Amtrak, FDOT intra-Florida corridor service, Rail Consortium East, Rail Consortium Central. JRTC: Brightline, future HSR, Nightjet, JTA commuter rail.

More on Amtrak Connects US

The original map

The modified map with additions in California

 

Corridors of Interest Map

Shortly after writing this piece, I had the following thought:

Could Amtrak Connects US be a bane on any non-Amtrak, non-Brightline passenger service? What if there's some entity planning intercity service on the low and their plans are co-opted by the national operator's plan to the point that it adversely affects the other entity's plans? 

Based on the fourth overall slide, it seems that Jim Coston of Corridor Capital may have answered that question during a presentation in Ohio. 

Namely, the answer seems to confirm my suspicions because why does anyone need a three-decade long contract unless they're scared of someone else providing better service? 

It's also worth noting that Coston pointed out that Herzog's Transit America Services is currently only the third intercity operator in the nation with its CTrail Hartford Line service. Combine those two with the San Joaquin JPA threatening to transfer the San Joaquin trains to Herzog and it becomes clear that Amtrak management is actually playing defense rather than taking the initiative. 

The Hartford Line runs on Amtrak tracks--don't forget that loss really wore Amtrak management down during the '10s (then-Amtrak boss Joe Boardman was perplexed that Connecticut didn't automatically hand the Hartford Line contract to Amtrak). Meanwhile, losing one of California's three state-sponsored corridors would start a ripple effect that would not only see AIPRO operators providing expanded service but would also undermine Connects US mainly due to the fact that these five operators would have skin in the game at the highest level.

Weighing in on Amtrak Airo cars

Replacing the Amfleets is long overdue because for one thing the Amfleet I equipment is over a half century old. Another thing is that Amtrak cannot grow if it holds onto aging fleet. The Carolinian would get a much-needed replacement. 

However, there are a number of issues with Airo:

1. No baggage cars. People aren't going to stop carrying bags. Under this scenario, only the long distance trains would continue to allow checked bags.
2. The one size fits all approach. The Airo cars are semi-permanently attached, and Amtrak decided to purchase trainsets instead of individualized cars which means that if one set is defective, the entire fleet goes out of service (see Talgo and Acela).
3. Amtrak is doing a full-scale replacement rather than adding to its fleet. Other than keeping Amfleet I and Horizon equipment as backup in case Airos are taken out of service for repairs, it'd be wise for Amtrak to shift the older equipment to areas like the Deep South where the Horizons could be used (as a matter fact, Amtrak recently used Horizon equipment as part of its test runs between New Orleans and Mobile in preparation of Gulf Coast service) and the desert where Amfleet Is could be deployed for conventional Los Angeles-Las Vegas service.

Should those ConnectsUS routes prove to be popular, those states could start the process to order new equipment--whether they're from Siemens or someone else. This would be much better than junking the old equipment just to prevent potential AIPRO competitors from replicating the same success NCDOT has with Piedmont service by using mostly Heritage equipment.

MSG-Penn Station Redux

Penn Station redevelopment has reappeared over the past several months to a year. What it boils down to is that Madison Square Garden's lease expires at the end of July. 

There are three proposals that would separate MSG from the station while New York Governor Kathy Hochul is backing a fourth proposal that would keep the Garden on top of Penn Station in perpetuity. The big sticking point is once again James Dolan as he was a decade ago. 

Like I said in 2013, Dolan and MSG need to leave Penn Station even as NYC Mayor Eric Adams also supports keeping The Garden put. The truth is that the Moynihan Train Hall has actually made things less convenient for Amtrak passengers because they have a longer way to go if they want to catch the subway.

The end result will be reflective of train service in the nation's top region. If Hochul/Dolan/Adams prevail, then on one hand, it will be a sign that even the most important city in the U.S. will be forced to make due with at best a mediocre train station. On the other hand, it may prove what Corridor Capital's Bruce Richardson said a couple years ago: 

Passenger train stations will once again become centers of both transportation and commerce. The temples and palaces of the past will not be rebuilt, but a more sensible combination of stations and services as found today on Brightline in South Florida will become the standard template.