The lack of a champion
In the latest sign of how the U.S. is no longer willing to do bold things, the first leg of the CAHSR line, a portion of the 119-mile segment between Bakersfield and Merced is now scheduled to open between 2030 and 2033. This will come after the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles. Instead of the usual environmental reviews, lawsuits and various interests trying to kill the project as well as relative indifference from Governor Gavin Newsom, this route needed a champion as laid out by an advocate two years ago.
A different approach was needed
The portion between 13:40 and 14:05 is probably the most vital part of the video. Bent Flyvberg is technically correct in a sense that the segments connecting Los Angeles and San Francisco should have been the first two to open. Think about it, the latter was technically a part of a pair of Initial Operating Segment schedules in a past business plan by the CAHSR Authority alongside Merced-Bakersfield. The Authority should have just gone ahead and put out some DB schedules upon the completion of the Caltrain Electrification Project and then started the work between San Jose and Merced.
Meanwhile on the other end, building the Los Angeles-Bakersfield segment would have gotten more bang for the buck as it would have also ended more than half a century of no train service between the two cities (back in the early 2000s, Union Pacific rejected a plan to extend San Joaquin train service to L.A. via the Tehachapi Pass).
Speaking about the Danish expert being "technically" correct, the Merced-Bakersfield IOS is as a political thing as the HSR route skipping I-5. I'll take a further step and say that it mirrors Florida HSR's ill-fated attempt to build Tampa-Orlando before Miami-Orlando--a mistake that was only corrected by Brightline's parent company owning tracks and right of way between Miami and the Orlando Airport.
