2022 Midterms and Rail

Given that transit agencies are still in various phases of recovery from the pandemic, there's very little to offer in the way of the future direction of commuter/regional rail outside of Florida.

Here's a link to all of the transit-related referenda that were on the ballot last month. Based on the results, we don't have to worry about this particular nightmare scenario any time soon. However, it could still be in play over the next few years as the Senate and presidency could flip in '24.

Election 2020 and Rail

There's not much to report on the rail front given the severity of the pandemic. So, I'll leave it to the experts to break most of this stuff down.

The only thing I'll say is that it's a really good thing that Bay Area voters stepped up to save Caltrain. 

On the high speed rail front, ex-congressman David Valadao, an opponent of CAHSR, won back the seat he lost in 2018. This shouldn't have an impact on the project anytime soon but be on the lookout after the '22 midterms provided that traditional trends take place and the House flips, Valadao and likely House Speaker Kevin McCarthy could really raise trouble for high speed rail in the Golden State.

I'll discuss the election's impact on Amtrak in the following post.

A wasted decade

Around this time a decade ago, the passenger rail community was gearing up for President Obama's announcement of high speed rail funding and it looked like a renaissance was upon us. Rather than the sky being the limit, here's what actually happened:

• The infamous Tea Party backlash that resulted in Wisconsin (Hiawatha extension to Madison), Ohio (3C Route) and Florida (Express HSR Tampa-Orlando-Miami route) returning their stimulus money to the feds
• A trade group composed of Amtrak's commuter competitors being formed but ignored by the press and blacked out among most rail activists
• A failed attempt by Senators Dick Durbin and Harry Reid to drive private operators out of the commuter business
• A successful power play by Joe Boardman, the NEC congressional slate and NARP that kept the Northeast Corridor from being rehabbed based on a clever yet deceitful PR campaign
• The Hoosier State being eliminated
• The loss of the Silver Star diner
• No advocacy for the long distance routes from the people who matter the most
• Congress passing another rail reform bill but failing to enforce competition provisions
• Amtrak stripping ticketing and checked baggage from numerous stations throughout the country
• An ex-airline executive currently runs Amtrak and has alienated almost everyone with his moves

The status quo has prevailed and there has been little progress in the 10 years since. The vast majority of rail advocates have exposed themselves as little more than a bunch of Amtrak shills. As far as NARP, its name change is pretty much an indication that it is taking a step backward.

2018 Midterms and Rail

Here are my rapid fire responses to the midterms and their impact on passenger rail.

West Coast
CA: The incoming governor may shift which segments of CAHSR get built next. When it comes to the main opponents of the project, two out of the three are gone—Valadao and Denham lost their House races but McCarthy will become the new House Minority Leader.

Southwest
NM: Here’s to hoping that Michelle Lujan Grisham is vastly more pro-rail than her predecessor.

Midwest
MN: Maybe the second Chicago-Twin Cities frequency will accelerate now.
WI: Governor No Train is finally ousted and he lost based on a rule that he created that prevented a recount by a certain margin. Serves him right.
IA: Kim Reynolds holding onto the governor’s mansion and soon to be serving a full term means that a Quad Cities-Omaha extension will be off the table for at least another four years.
IL: Once the Quad Cities route gets up and running, the question is which route will be next on the agenda. The Black Hawk revival? Rockford service? Something else?
OH: Oh dear, Mike DeWine had the most ambiguous position out of the four gubernatorial candidates in regards to transit needs, which may mean the status quo in Columbus.

Southeast
AL: Earlier this year, Kay Ivey passed on providing money to reviving the Mobile-New Orleans Gulf Coast Limited route. That seemed to conclude a spat between the governor and the Southern Rail Commission but a couple of weeks later, advocates pressed forward with building a new station in Mobile. Ivey got elected to a full term but is less inclined to even support any type of passenger rail than her predecessor, who at least explored the possibility of a PPP before an impeachment threat forced him to step down.
GA: As to what the new governor will do in advancing passenger rail, your guess is as good as mine. If anything, Georgians may be better off hoping that Sir Richard’s venture serves the Atlanta-Charlotte market in the interim.
FL: It will be up to the public to push Ron DeSantis to implement a statewide rail system to connect Floridians. Over the past six or so years, region after region has expressed its interest in reviving rail service in some capacity. Now is the time to not only provide a system but to also prove that a state can develop on without Amtrak. Don’t just leave everything to Brightline/Virgin.
NC: Roy Cooper can now veto rail-unfriendly legislation, which would be a sigh of relief for mass transit.

Northeast
CT: We shall see if the new governor is more open to funding the Housatonic and New England Central routes now that the Hartford Line is finally up and running. 
MA: Conversely, we’ll also see if Charlie Baker and the legislature are able to produce any new routes in the Bay State.
ME: Hopefully, the Pine Tree State will move out of its neutral position and develop more routes.

The New Passenger Paradigm

Railway Age, July

Initial takeaway: Rail activists would be keen to read and reread the first sentence on what really led to the creation of Amtrak so they can stop spewing their defeatist nonsense whenever someone tries to propose out of the box ways to expand passenger travel in this country.

Third paragraph: Herzog was prescient and took notes before anyone on Capitol Hill even drafted PRIIA. Even though the AIPRO is small, it should say something that its members have the bulk of commuter rail contracts when a couple of decades ago, Amtrak had a near monopoly outside of the Northeast and Chicago.

Fourth paragraph: This expert nails it: The status quo cannot be maintained after 45 years when multiple operators have expressed interest in running intercity trains.

Fifth paragraph: The New Passenger Paradigm matches up with the late Gil Carmichael's Interstate II and my rail highway concepts.

Sixth paragraph: Based on what Mr. Chambers is saying, all that's needed is for the feds to actually enforce the laws and end the stasis once and for all. After all, when the time came to enforce the Pilot Program in accordance to PRIIA guidelines, the FRA waited a full two years to do so and by that time, there were too many loose ends that the old program just withered away despite immense interest. Another thing is to make sure that the feds do not play favorites--i.e., rig the process to maintain Amtrak's near monopoly (the 2012 near miss comes to mind).

Second column: Regarding the push for new legislation, somebody has to do it because the resident rent seekers sure won't. When it comes to Section 301 not being enforced, one can only look at the executive branch and ask: What happened, President Obama, USDOT, FRA? Was it in any way retaliation to some states returning stimulus money? Was the lack of enforcement actually stimulus related?

If the feds had followed the German model, we would already have: 1) states having greater flexibility to select operators and set their own standards and 2) Amtrak having a surplus amount of equipment due to it experiencing the same type of contract losses of its intercity routes that it's had with its commuter service. The next president and Congress would be very wise to adopt AIPRO's statutes. The second proposed statute would be an excellent way to make money. JR West does this now and Brightline and Housatonic plan on turning their station areas into prime real estate.

Rail and the 2014 Midterms

Florida

Part 1

Only in the Sunshine State can up be down. Over the summer, Rachel Dovey and Fred Frailey talked about how backwards the rail picture was in the state--the Tea Party-backed incumbent governor Rick Scott backing the private All Aboard Florida against ex-governor Charlie Crist who clearly prefers the high speed project Scott scuttled.

Other actors in the AAF saga are Treasure Coast residents and politicians who have exhibited a nasty form of NIMBYism. It's like these people have never seen a train before. They chose to live near an area where a major railroad frequently runs trains so it's ridiculous for them to make all of those demands. I can't help but wonder if these residents are actually upset that after 14 years of unfulfilled promises Amtrak is still nowhere close to implementing East Coast service between Jacksonville and Miami. If Treasure Coast residents want someone to blame, they should be pointing the finger at the feds for not funding the route during stimulus mania. These alleged problems would have never come up if Amtrak were already running trains through the area.

Part 2

Now that Scott has been elected to a second term, All Aboard Florida should all but be in the clear to proceed so Treasure Coast residents need to get over themselves. It really is strange that the same governor who relied on a highly biased study to finish off an HSR project that operators like Virgin were ready to run could go down in history as the guy who restored Florida's status as a major passenger rail hub--albeit accidentally. 

As for Crist, it would have been next to impossible for him to have revived the Florida High Speed Rail route just due to the fact that he would've at best dealt with a House of Representatives who has zeroed out federal HSR funding ever since it flipped to the GOP four years ago. His adversarial stance towards AAF demonstrates the overall problem I have with most Democrats. The TC residents' resistance to private sector operators hurts passenger rail (a Metro Jacksonville moderator hit the nail on the head).

The biggest thing missing over the "which train project is better" debate is the fact that neither Crist nor Scott showed any interest in corridor service along existing routes. The way to have a robust system is to work with what you have. The infrastructure is in place so foresight and selecting operators committed to producing world class service are the only things needed.

Midwest

The only way passenger rail is going to advance in the Buckeye State is for communities and advocacy groups to continue taking the lead since John Kasich is guaranteed to leave Columbus in 2019. Given the recent fiasco in Indiana over the operation of the Hoosier State, I hope that All Aboard Ohio and other groups have enough foresight to talk to other operators about the Hoosier Extension and the Columbus-Chicago routes especially if Amtrak's a no-go.

Mark Dayton and Scott Walker won their reelection campaigns as well but by single digits. Dayton's DOT will continue picking up the whole price tab for not only the feasibility studies of a second Chicago-St. Paul frequency but when the trains actually operate. 

When it comes to the new equipment for the Midwestern trains, IL and MI will get their share and give WI leftovers. If anything, the Hiawathas will consist mostly of leftover Horizon Cars. Any Badger State resident hoping for rail service off of the Chicago-Milwaukee-La Crosse-St. Paul route had better pray that Ed Ellis not only turns the Varsity into a regular route but expands his shortline empire.

North Carolina

In Wake County, Democrats turned a 3-4 disadvantage on the Board of Commissioners into a 7-0 board. These results will make having a referendum on light rail easier. The trick will be convincing the voters to join its northwestern neighbors.

National Outlook

Barring a 2006-like backlash against right wing rule in D.C., HSR won't be getting a dime until 2023 at the earliest. Even though anti-HSR Californians will hold some powerful positions in the House and continue making life miserable for the CAHSR project, the nation's only Express HSR project to be funded with stimulus funds will rely on state and private sector financing until it begins service.

Amtrak will likely see its funding slashed--maybe even significantly--but the real question is whether the new Congress will allow real competition, which would be the national operator's primary threat. With both houses soon to be in the opposition's hands, the Grand Bargain should be front and center as the alternative to the now-myopic national HSR vision President Obama laid out 5 1/2 years ago. 

Noel Braymer's editorial on how Republicans are the only ones who can save the long distance trains may very well be tested now. In order to prove Amtrak's advocates wrong, the GOP should implement any one of the three suggestions Braymer laid out. Second, congressmen and women should talk to their constituents who are starving for more train service as well as advocacy groups who want more trains in their states but aren't relying on "America's Railroad."

TIGER grants will be phased out in all likelihood. The currently negotiated TIGER VII grants will be the last funds the Obama Administration gives out to rail operators of all stripes.

Discussions on Private Operators and Competition

Check out these two websites because they each represent interesting viewpoints that could shape the future of rail travel in America : Cascadia Prospectus on controlled competition and the Transport Politic on private involvement in intercity rail as Reps. Mica and Shuster weigh in on the latter topic via a hearing. My comments can be found in both articles. Enjoy!

The Midterms and Rail 2

California
Jerry Brown's election means that there won't be any delays to the high speed route. It still remains to be seen if the Peninsula NIMBYs become just as irrelevant as Meg Whitman. Even though the feds mandated that recent money that it handed California be spent on the Central Valley alignment, the San Francisco-San Jose segment must also go ahead.

Whatever issues that the Authority may have with Caltrans and other rail advocates must be worked out because it the HSR route can save a lot of money along certain segments. The Tehachapi Pass segment could see the shared use of HSR and San Joaquin trains. Even if Amtrak has to switch engines in Bakersfield, cooperation may be needed to save costs for everybody. A rights deal between the Authority and Caltrans can be the way to go as many as three or four rail operators may end up using HSR tracks in the next decade.

Also, there is no reason for the HSR route to have separate right of way in Los Angeles.

Florida
Late in the campaign, Governor-elect Rick Scott backtracked from his initial stance of opposing the Tampa-Orlando route. He narrowly edged out fast train supporter Alex Sink last week. It's interesting to see what will happen next since the Obama Administration gave the 84-mile route more stimulus money--like $800 million more-- late last month.

If the project continues without delay, its western terminus will be a bit empty since voters in Tampa defeated a sales tax for a new light rail system and bus expansion. That's important because the planned Tampa Bay Intermodal Center is supposed to house high speed rail, intercity buses, express buses, and light rail.

If there is a delay, Scott and Florida officials should take my recommendation to heart by spinning off the HSR route to JR Central and letting the DOT provide a more suitable system for the Sunshine State.

Representative John Mica now thinks that the HSR route should be limited to the Orlando area. I already knew that the Express route will be nothing more than a tourist route but Mica is taking it to another extreme and may be unwittingly reducing the chances that the route makes a profit, especially if the Japanese (or Chinese or South Koreans) build the route by themselves.

National
Almost two years ago, passenger rail advocates were finally jubilant as the president gave a total of $16.5 billion to Amtrak and high speed rail in the economic stimulus. It was, quite frankly, the first time since the mid 1960s that most of these people could breathe and talk about how passenger rail will thrive once again in America.

Last Tuesday was the worst thing that could have happened to them because many of these same people have now gone back into survival mode, mostly thanks to pols like Walker and Kasich and also the anti-government Tea Party.

I, however, will stand by what I said in July because

1. Democrats will still run the Senate
2. Any anti-Amtrak and/or anti-HSR measures will either be squashed by the Senate or will be vetoed by President Obama
3. The end of passenger rail in America will require the GOP to have 67 Senate seats or rely on a few anti-Amtrak Blue Dog Senators
   

Mica will now become the transportation chairman in the House. Other than truncating Florida's route, he was very upset that the White House decided to dish out most of its grants to any routes that were classified as Regional HSR or below. He wants the Northeast Corridor to get a lot of money and also have private operators running the route as well.

As for all of the Republicans who rail (no pun intended) against Amtrak, they should put their money where their mouths are at the national and state levels. If they want to send a message to Amtrak, they would shake things up by tilting the field in favor of companies like DB-owned Arriva, First Group (owners of Greyhound), and Go-Ahead and against Amtrak. Then, they would order the state DOTs to select those companies to run the trains.

It would be advantageous in that the GOP would be unable to equate trains with "socialism," Amtrak would no longer be able to automatically get first dibs on corridors, and riders would be able to select from at least two rail operators in their states.

The Midterms and Rail

Last Tuesday, rail advocates were mostly wallowing in misery after anti-rail candidates won offices.

Wisconsin
Scott Walker campaigned as the guy who would pull the plug on the Hiawatha extension to Madison. Last Monday, outgoing governor Jim Doyle signed a deal with the feds to go ahead with construction of the route. However, construction was halted days after Walker's win. Even stranger still was the governor-elect's plea to Talgo to stay in the Badger State even though he was the one to create an anti-train site. If Walker really wants to focus on highways and stop the rail project, he will have to deal with the consequences like lost jobs, passengers in southeast WI continuing to ride outdated and unreliable Horizon cars, and putting the entire Chicago-Twin Cities HSR route in jeopardy.

Ohio
Ex-congressman John Kasich is even more serious about killing the 3C route than Walker is the Madison extension. The gubernatorial elections in OH and WI may have been more about the voters wanting to stick it to the president than anything else. Ergo, they should not complain when there's no dependable train service in their states in the upcoming years.

The fact that the Buckeye State's governor-elect was able to get away with calling the Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati route a 39 mph project when it was continuously disproven completely baffles me. The starting speed is 79 mph with long-term plans to provide a 110 mph speed.

John Kasich is not the only person responsible for letting a very sensible rail project become stillborn--the Ohio Rail Development Commission also deserves blame because they were the ones who relied on an Amtrak report from 2009. If the officials in Columbus had done their homework, then they would have at least talked to one or two other operators for a different analysis. After all, the PRIIA allows states to talk to other rail companies. There are various companies that are lining up to run intercity train routes in the U.S.

If the ORDC had taken a page from the folks out west, then Kasich would have been unable to spread his 39 mph lie and Amtrak would be looking behind its shoulder due to a second player providing service in a vital state.