The FRA Long Distance Service Study could lead to the separation of Amtrak's three business units, but the question for me is whether it will be a voluntary or involuntary one.
Involuntary Splitting
In the case of the latter, it could happen during the next passenger rail reauthorization bill once the current bill expires in 2026. The fiasco around the Biden Administration nominating way too many Northeastern representatives onto the Amtrak Board to the point where a Western senator from his own party had to block said nominees could only be the beginning. Assuming that there is no change in the House and the Senate flips next year, I could see a Republican Congress being all too happy to strip powers from Stephen Gardner.
Under this formal separation, the NEC and other adjacent parts of the Northeastern states would continue to be run by Gardner but the rest of Amtrak would be in the hands of someone who will make every destination west of Harrisburg, PA and south of Washington, D.C. matter.
Voluntary Splitting
The other option would require an incredible amount of self-awareness from the current Amtrak management and/or Board that is seriously lacking at this moment. In other words, an informal separation would happen due to either Amtrak leadership or the Board realizing that the company is stretched thin due to a number of factors: an overemphasis on the NEC at the expense of the rest of the country, the expansion of long-distance routes as recommended by the FRA, equipment breakdowns/shortages, etc.
As a result, someone would be tasked to run the overnight routes on a laissez-fare basis while Gardner and others would then focus on Amtrak's other units and equipment orders.
Conclusion
Given the pending competition that will be coming after Brightline, Amtrak risks falling behind if it doesn't revamp, so either option would be in its best interest.
