The Metrolink Saga is Settled

After 10 months, the drama with the West Coast's largest commuter rail agency has been decided in the favor of...Amtrak. Yep, Amtrak for the first time in ages was able to keep a commuter rail contract outside of the Northeast. A document (scroll down to page 24) from an August Metrolink meeting provides clues.

One step closer

So as of yesterday, Stephen Gardner was promoted to Amtrak President--officially the number two position--but as far as anyone is concerned, he's going to be pulling the strings alongside Board Chair Tony Coscia while CEO Bill Flynn is just going along for the ride.

In any case, Amtrak is heading into its 50th anniversary the same way it entered its 10th and 25th: In peril. The coronavirus pandemic has really hit all modes of travel but the leadership went overboard by implementing a known failed strategy by reducing the Silver Meteor to quad-weekly and every other long distance route other than Auto Train to triweekly. The cynic in me says that this regime will now be empowered to get rid of some overnight trains once they fail to meet the company's unrealistic projections and possibly follow Via Rail's model for (most of) the rest. 

When I read stories like this, everything I said in 2013 stands. Amtrak has a management/institutional problem rather than a funding problem. At a time when European operators reversed course on cutting their overnight services, "America's Railroad" opted to cede certain markets to low priced and overnight bus providers. However, Capitol Hill, past White Houses and some state legislatures (*cough*Indiana*cough) share the blame for the shrinkage of the Amtrak system. 

As far as the incoming Biden administration goes, optimists in the passenger rail community may cite the former vice president's frequent patronage as a senator, but he'll have plenty on his plate--namely tackling the virus. Will Congress actually do anything to make sure passenger rail no longer resembles a third world nation's system? Unless it actually funds the system and allows EU-style bidding like Germany, I won't be holding my breath when it comes to a new reauthorization bill next year. 

Election 2020 and Rail

There's not much to report on the rail front given the severity of the pandemic. So, I'll leave it to the experts to break most of this stuff down.

The only thing I'll say is that it's a really good thing that Bay Area voters stepped up to save Caltrain. 

On the high speed rail front, ex-congressman David Valadao, an opponent of CAHSR, won back the seat he lost in 2018. This shouldn't have an impact on the project anytime soon but be on the lookout after the '22 midterms provided that traditional trends take place and the House flips, Valadao and likely House Speaker Kevin McCarthy could really raise trouble for high speed rail in the Golden State.

I'll discuss the election's impact on Amtrak in the following post.

A Rant About Amtrak Service Reductions

This week was the first of three in which Amtrak will make all of its remaining long distance trains outside of Auto Train triweekly. The criteria the company has in place will set these trains to miss the intended targets by June 30—and therefore fail. The horrendous online booking scheme says it all.

Everyone has to deal with the fact that Amtrak's current management simply doesn't care about the long distance system because There are severed connections all over the place among other things.

Even at previous low points, Amtrak at least kept portions of certain long distance routes daily before breaking them into less than daily segments. Consider these examples:

• Crescent daily to Atlanta
• Empire Builder daily to St. Paul
• Texas Eagle daily to St. Louis
• Some type of daily service between Chicago and Salt Lake City

However, with this pandemic the current management didn’t even have the courtesy to even do that outside of the Florida trains. After all, Stephen Gardner and Anthony Coscia have openly expressed their hostility to the overnight trains as did previous president Richard Anderson. When it comes to current president William Flynn, my initial reaction to him being named was justified because he’s going to go along with whatever Gardner and Coscia tell him. If the presidential election goes the way the polls are predicting, then, Gardner may very well get a chance to finish the job he, Anderson and Coscia started, with the overnight trains going away.

·       Amtrak was caught being dishonest about Florida, and this graph put together by RPA (fka NARP) and retweeted by All Aboard Ohio demonstrates just how much management is willing to sacrifice other parts of the country for its beloved Northeast Corridor.

 The rail community has to be very weary of Amtrak management’s pledge of these cuts being “temporary.” History is an indicator:

1. George Warrington was supposed to be a temporary president, but the Amtrak Board selected him over Andrew Selden in 1998. The result was Warrington nearly bankrupting the company after he bet the farm on Acela Express
2. Joseph Boardman was supposed to be a temporary president after the 2008 presidential election, but the Board removed the “temporary” tag at the beginning of 2010. Amtrak stagnated because the expansions that took place were done by the states, not Amtrak itself. The company didn’t show any interest in proactively operating any new routes—its interest was in trying to keep well-established HSR operators out of the country and trying to prevent its commuter competitors from entering the intercity market (the Tea Party wave made the former possible and Congress’s inaction was responsible for the latter)
3. A now ex-CFO went behind Boardman’s back to take the diners off #91 and #92 five years ago. A few months later, the alleged “experiment” was made permanent. The only reason why the diners were put back on the Silver Star was because the Anderson regime downgraded meal service on all long distance trains

MCS Virtual Tour

https://my.matterport.com/show/?m=nhQitTrsuMP&back=1

The Brightline-Virgin alliance is over

So, the partnership between Virgin and Brightline is over as of July 29. It is worth noting that Sir Richard Branson's had a horrible year: Virgin Trains exited the UK at the end of last year after it was stripped of its route over pension issues, and more recently, Virgin Atlantic filed for Chapter 15 bankruptcy due to the fallout over COVID-19.

I don't know if this is about Fortress Investment Group wanting to distance itself from Virgin's troubles, a blowup between the two entities over the latter never investing in Brightline or something else, but this could be a blow to the New Passenger Paradigm.

Addendum: Congressional testimony on Amtrak and the states

Trains Magazine last fall
House transcripts 

Revolting Against Amtrak Part II

Is Amtrak the only state option?

To answer the article in the April edition of Trains Magazine: It shouldn't be.

Testifying at a U.S. House of Representatives rail subcommittee hearing on Amtrak operations, [Stacey] Mortenson said she found it "absolutely astonishing" when Amtrak officials told her in a meeting "that service cuts or reducing the number of railcars would not necessarily same us any money."

But yet at certain times, bean counters in Washington go ahead and cut service under the guise of "saving money" anyway.
For all of the flak, NCDOT gets from some rail activists for using refurbished pre-Amtrak era equipment, it looks as if it made a smart move since it only pays Amtrak for Carolinian equipment. For instance, look at all of the trouble the Midwestern states went through with Nippon-Sharyo's double-decker equipment.
Bob Johnston pointed out that advertising and corridor-specific marketing among other things have fallen off a cliff since the late '90s. Here in North Carolina, advertising for the Piedmont and Carolinian are handled by NCDOT, and the only Amtrak presence came in the form of radio ads in the mid '10s.
Amtrak may have the statutory right of access to the host railroads' tracks but if the states had done their homework in the early '10s, they could have dumped Amtrak, used the commuter rail model for AIPRO operators and saved themselves a lot of money. The refusal by the states to consider AIPRO operators means that these DOTs shot themselves in the foot in regards to expansion and using their imagination.

It must be pointed out the reason why the Hoosier State failed was because it was the only corridor route that had less than daily service, Indiana officials were half-hearted with their support--the cities and universities along the route did most of the heavy lifting--and the trains stopped at unmarketable times.

Bennett Levin pointed out to Trains Magazine that Amtrak's liability advantage was eradicated after the Train #188 derailment five years ago when the cap was raised from $250 million for only Amtrak to $294 million for all passenger carriers.

In any case, heightened scrutiny of Amtrak's costs an responsiveness will clearly be a contentious element of upcoming re-authorization discussions.

Congress needs to keep the pressure up on Amtrak because it has gotten away with saddling states with high cost, low revenue studies that all but guarantee no expansion of existing services and no new routes. On top of that, the other states need to stand up to bureaucrats in D.C. who know nothing about their needs and only care about the 457 miles between Washington and Boston.

Bennett Levin's Visit to Pennsylvania Legislators

In the First Quarter issue in Passenger Train Journal, Kevin McKinney analyzed Levin's testimony in the Pennsylvania House Transportation Committee at the end of last year.

[Levin] adds that "SEPTA gives Amtrak attributable to the Harrisburg Line is not being used by Amtrak on the Harrisburg Line, but is being used by Amtrak for other purposes."

Is it any wonder why Levin wants SEPTA to run the trains? A slight variation should result in a new PENN RAIL running the trains instead.

Levin also pointed out just how out of touch the Amtrak Board is with the people who are on it and have no railroading experience. It's worth noting that both Levin and Mortenson told the legislative bodies in question that Amtrak's accounting is absolutely opaque.

Levin is right in that "Amtrak is running on auto-pilot" and the states "are getting shortchanged." The former is due to "America's Railroad" getting all of that PRIIA money from the states and feeling no need to improve the state-supported routes without needless studies.

Florida by Amtrak

In the Fourth Quarter 2019 issue of Passenger Train Journal, Kevin McKinney took a look at the inverse relationship between Amtrak's presence in Florida and the state's population over the past half century. Going even further, the Sunshine State's rapid growth since the dawn of the 20th century should make one weep over how whittled down passenger service has become.

Even when the Seaboard Coast Line reluctantly handed its trains over to Amtrak, the combined Atlantic Coast Line and Seaboard Air Line entity had more than enough options for travelers. McKinney did a good job in describing the planning of which routes to incorporate into Amtrak. The more I think about it, the more likely that my alternative scenario would have happened had SCL management not been so concerned about ordering new equipment.

Cross-Florida service is something that the FDOT should be responsible for and reminds me of the free ride certain Midwest and Northeastern states were getting prior to PRIIA. Why no one in Congress has moved to rescind ex-congressman Mica's food service provision baffles me (maybe they'll address it in the next rail re-authorization bill but I doubt it).

Advertising has been absent outside the Northeast Corridor for years

The lack of advertising and the failure to recognize winter peak season tells me that Amtrak is has long blown off the state and that it merely tolerates what it already has. The reduced consists speak for themselves

Florida's population has tripled since Amtrak was formed while the the national operator has not only decreased its footprint but is now being lapped by Virgin's Brightline, which has 32 trains even though it's still a glorified commuter route until the Orlando Airport extension is completed. Other metro areas in the state have taken a look at Sunrail and Tri-Rail and are exploring their own commuter systems, and it's up to the folks in Tallahassee to get it together. If the executive and legislative branches do in fact patch everything together by using the Sunrail model and cut Amtrak out of the picture, it may be game over for Amtrak's share.

To be in decline in a booming market is certainly not an impressive feat. To actually be making service less appealing instead of finding ways to improve and grow the business suggests it is time to officially redefine the mission of what a national rail passenger carrier should be, finance it properly, and find management--or a new organization--capable of running a high-quality, growth-oriented business.

Indeed.Amtrak turns 50 next spring and there should be some very hard questions over what a national rail carrier should look like (hint: new operators with new approaches to grow the market). Florida is untapped potential and it's being taken advantage of by Brightline, not Amtrak.

New Amtrak CEO

Richard Anderson is on his way out and his replacement has been named. The only appropriate response to William Flynn succeeding the guy derisively referred to by railfans as "Delta Dick" and "Propellerhead" is A BIG YAWN. 

Charles Sanders was spot on when he hinted that Anderson's personality was his likely demise.

It will be up to Congress to enforce guidelines that force Amtrak to compete with others for intercity routes because its current regime only cares about shaking down states for money while wasting money on vanity projects like new Acela cars.

As the Metrolink Turns

Amtrak recently told its people in the Los Angeles area that it would be losing the Metrolink contract for the second time. This would mean that the national operator's slump against private entities will stretch into a third decade with only a couple of victories--and even those have qualifiers. 

First, when Amtrak won back the Metrolink contract in the summer of '09, it was no-bid (i.e. the commuter agency only talked to the national operator after the wake of the Chatsworth disaster). Second, when MARC put its Penn Line up for bid, the outcome was never in doubt since that route was on the southernmost end of the NEC.

Revolting Against Amtrak

Two months ago, Stacey Mortenson of the San Joaquin JPA spilled the beans to Congress on how Amtrak overcharges state-supported routes--namely, her San Joaquin service. I'm pretty sure that Herzog would do a much better job operating the San Joaquins than Amtrak. Also, the SJ JPA plans on rerouting the trains to serve multiple parts of Sacramento. I really hope that Mortenson can pull off the transfer and even if this just a negotiating ploy, it would further show Amtrak's Northeastern-centric managment and board that California's JPAs are not fooling around--after all, the state's three JPAs were the only agencies that refused to go along with Amtrak Corporate's boneheaded moves to eliminate discounts in 2018.

Last month, a rail advocate told a Pennsylvania House committee that the commonwealth could do a better and cheaper job operating intercity rail than Amtrak. Whatever happens in Harrisburg, it's mandatory that there is at the very least a restoration of a second frequency between Harrisburg and Pittsburgh.

Despite Richard Anderson's bluster, this is the clearest sign that Amtrak's "valued state partners" are getting fed up with an agency that only cares about the Northeast Corridor and is only interested in shaking down the states for money while refusing to expand or provide new equipment.

That said, the states should have rebelled against Amtrak during the Section 209 fight seven years ago. California needed to be the guinea pig for private operators getting into corridor service, not Indiana. A state with three distinct corridors would have made it much more appealing to other state DOTs to ditch Amtrak instead of the only state to have a less than daily corridor service.

The dustup with the San Joaquins and Pennsylvania may very well prove what Amtrak critic M.E. Singer has said about PRIIA: That the 2008 law is the problem an may need to be repealed or reformed.

Outside of the box thinking is needed now more than ever because a continued reliance on Amtrak instead of turning to AIPRO members or Virgin Trains will squash any hopes of a passenger rail renaissance. States with limited or no corridor service need to pay attention to what's happening on both coasts so they can know what to avoid if they want to expand their routes.

A wasted decade

Around this time a decade ago, the passenger rail community was gearing up for President Obama's announcement of high speed rail funding and it looked like a renaissance was upon us. Rather than the sky being the limit, here's what actually happened:

• The infamous Tea Party backlash that resulted in Wisconsin (Hiawatha extension to Madison), Ohio (3C Route) and Florida (Express HSR Tampa-Orlando-Miami route) returning their stimulus money to the feds
• A trade group composed of Amtrak's commuter competitors being formed but ignored by the press and blacked out among most rail activists
• A failed attempt by Senators Dick Durbin and Harry Reid to drive private operators out of the commuter business
• A successful power play by Joe Boardman, the NEC congressional slate and NARP that kept the Northeast Corridor from being rehabbed based on a clever yet deceitful PR campaign
• The Hoosier State being eliminated
• The loss of the Silver Star diner
• No advocacy for the long distance routes from the people who matter the most
• Congress passing another rail reform bill but failing to enforce competition provisions
• Amtrak stripping ticketing and checked baggage from numerous stations throughout the country
• An ex-airline executive currently runs Amtrak and has alienated almost everyone with his moves

The status quo has prevailed and there has been little progress in the 10 years since. The vast majority of rail advocates have exposed themselves as little more than a bunch of Amtrak shills. As far as NARP, its name change is pretty much an indication that it is taking a step backward.

Colorado news

State House Speaker opposes Front Range Rail

If Becker is betting the future of transportation on autonomous vehicles, she is deluding herself. Furthermore, if anyone in the Colorado legislature is looking to Anderson et al to come to the rescue, then, they need to look at how the Boardman Administration dragged out the Southwest Chief issue.

Inside the box thinking is going to render intercity rail in Colorado stillborn.

A private operator wants to complete RTD's B Line

Given the route's issues, it wouldn't hurt at all to let Rocky Mountain Rail try it out.

All you need to know about Amtrak's limited vision