Diaspora's Greatest Hits 1

Diaspora is shutting down the diasp.org server at the end of the month, so I'm republishing my best posts from that server here.

Thinking Beyond Commuter Rail

The S-Bahn model

The RER model

Train Stations: Good news, bad news?

Scoop: Amtrak, MDOT eye Michigan Central for new Detroit train, bus station - Axios Detroit

A pleasant surprise is in the making because it looked as though the Motor City was going to have two non-connecting train stations. If MDOT or the city wants another station in Detroit, it could build it somewhere other than the New Center location. In the meantime, with Ford having restored MCS to its former glory, curve out a space for the station to actually serve trains.

Site selected for future Palmer train station along West-East Rail line

MassDOT Chooses “Site B” As Its Plan A to Locate Palmer’s Rail Stop…

Meanwhile in the Bay State, I just don't get this decision. The Steaming Tender Restaurant was there for the taking--not to mention, a perfect symmetry with New England Central's planned Central Corridor and potential connections galore. The platform for Amtrak could have been raised. Instead, the best-case scenario is now that the town will end up with two tiny stations and passengers would have to use rideshares or local buses if they want to change trains. So much for connectivity.

This also brings me to another point: The New England coordination has been all out of whack over the last decade and a half. Massachusetts has been receptive to restoring passenger service to the Berkshires- Pittsfield route via Housatonic Railroad but cool to the Central Corridor (it even dismissed the notion of the New London-Palmer-Brattleboro route in 2017). Meanwhile, Connecticut has welcomed the idea of Housatonic operating service while having very mixed opinions on the Central Corridor. The leaders in both states need to overcome their aversion to track-owning railroads operating intercity service. If Herzog can operate the Hartford Line, then, there's no reason that Housatonic and New England Central can't.

A Regional Bay Area Transit System That Works

 The future that never was vs the likely future

Tackling the Headlines 82

Long distance competition at last?
On Wednesday, the FRA finally complied with Section 205 of the FAST Act and set the standards for bidding on long distance routes

TL;DR analysis: For once, the FRA is following the law on time. I want to see what the Ed Ellises and the AIPROs of the world do with overnight routes. 

Full analysis: Go to Tumblr.

More destaffings
Recently, Amtrak has been turning staffed stations into unstaffed stations. Now, Homewood, IL and Wolf Point, MT have been added.  

Take #1: I seriously wonder if Joe Boardman has enacted some kind of a scorched earth policy on his way out. The rash of destaffings and stripping the Silver Star of its dining cars come to mind as possible ways the lame duck Amtrak president is getting back at a lot of people. The latter act is also justification for the FRA's actions a couple of days ago.

Take #2: I am also getting tired of know it all railfans justifying small towns and suburban locations losing agents. Not everybody has access to technology and not everyone wants to handle computers. That mentality is exactly why so-called "flyover country" is in open rebellion against city folks. Instead of reducing staffed stations, a responsible company would be adding staffed stations.

Alabama rising?
Earlier this month, news broke that Corridor Capital was planning a regional rail system for Alabama and two other states and headquarters in Montgomery. As it turned out, Alabama media ran with this story big time. However, last Friday's NARP's newsletter poured cold water on exactly who was backing Corridor Capital's efforts. The Southern Rail Commission not only denied supporting CorrCap but also decided to stress how it was working with Amtrak among others.

Take #1: I had to reread the stories from the Alabama press and not once did I ever get any idea that CorrCap was even mentioned as an operator.

Take #2: A comment on the Trains Magazine page on the SRC's disavowal of CorrCap says it all: "So I guess if you are a private sector entity seeking improved passenger rail service the politicians don't want you." When I said that advocacy groups needed to adapt to a post-monopoly era rather than going all in with Amtrak, I didn't think that I'd have to also apply this to the states but given this development and Minnesota picking Amtrak to run the Northern Lights Express even though the planned second Chicago-Twin Cities frequency won't serve Minneapolis, I guess I have to.

Take #3: I wonder if NARP got into the SRC's ear and told them to distance themselves from Corridor Capital given how attached to Amtrak NARP really is.

Take #4: There is no excuse for the New Orleans-Orlando route to still be "suspended" after 10 1/2 years! If someone else can come along and get something going, that group should be commended not ridiculed the way CorrCap is now.

Take #5: Going back to Mr. Norton's comments in the Trains article, he's right on. The Floridian (1971-79), Gulf Breeze (1990-95), and the Gulf Coast Limited (1984-85 & 96-97) have all come and gone. If an entrepreneur is trying to provide a service that is absent and the only thing the current operator is doing is subjecting states to endless feasibility studies, sooner or later, the public will have to go with the person who is thinking outside of the box.

St. Louis Union Station excursions
Links can be found here, here, and here.

Take: Until non-Amtrak operators are allowed to run overnight trains and America gets serious about European-style high speed rail, this might be as good as it gets. But at least, Union Station is finally being used for its original purpose 38 years after Amtrak left.

Rail and the 2014 Midterms

Florida

Part 1

Only in the Sunshine State can up be down. Over the summer, Rachel Dovey and Fred Frailey talked about how backwards the rail picture was in the state--the Tea Party-backed incumbent governor Rick Scott backing the private All Aboard Florida against ex-governor Charlie Crist who clearly prefers the high speed project Scott scuttled.

Other actors in the AAF saga are Treasure Coast residents and politicians who have exhibited a nasty form of NIMBYism. It's like these people have never seen a train before. They chose to live near an area where a major railroad frequently runs trains so it's ridiculous for them to make all of those demands. I can't help but wonder if these residents are actually upset that after 14 years of unfulfilled promises Amtrak is still nowhere close to implementing East Coast service between Jacksonville and Miami. If Treasure Coast residents want someone to blame, they should be pointing the finger at the feds for not funding the route during stimulus mania. These alleged problems would have never come up if Amtrak were already running trains through the area.

Part 2

Now that Scott has been elected to a second term, All Aboard Florida should all but be in the clear to proceed so Treasure Coast residents need to get over themselves. It really is strange that the same governor who relied on a highly biased study to finish off an HSR project that operators like Virgin were ready to run could go down in history as the guy who restored Florida's status as a major passenger rail hub--albeit accidentally. 

As for Crist, it would have been next to impossible for him to have revived the Florida High Speed Rail route just due to the fact that he would've at best dealt with a House of Representatives who has zeroed out federal HSR funding ever since it flipped to the GOP four years ago. His adversarial stance towards AAF demonstrates the overall problem I have with most Democrats. The TC residents' resistance to private sector operators hurts passenger rail (a Metro Jacksonville moderator hit the nail on the head).

The biggest thing missing over the "which train project is better" debate is the fact that neither Crist nor Scott showed any interest in corridor service along existing routes. The way to have a robust system is to work with what you have. The infrastructure is in place so foresight and selecting operators committed to producing world class service are the only things needed.

Midwest

The only way passenger rail is going to advance in the Buckeye State is for communities and advocacy groups to continue taking the lead since John Kasich is guaranteed to leave Columbus in 2019. Given the recent fiasco in Indiana over the operation of the Hoosier State, I hope that All Aboard Ohio and other groups have enough foresight to talk to other operators about the Hoosier Extension and the Columbus-Chicago routes especially if Amtrak's a no-go.

Mark Dayton and Scott Walker won their reelection campaigns as well but by single digits. Dayton's DOT will continue picking up the whole price tab for not only the feasibility studies of a second Chicago-St. Paul frequency but when the trains actually operate. 

When it comes to the new equipment for the Midwestern trains, IL and MI will get their share and give WI leftovers. If anything, the Hiawathas will consist mostly of leftover Horizon Cars. Any Badger State resident hoping for rail service off of the Chicago-Milwaukee-La Crosse-St. Paul route had better pray that Ed Ellis not only turns the Varsity into a regular route but expands his shortline empire.

North Carolina

In Wake County, Democrats turned a 3-4 disadvantage on the Board of Commissioners into a 7-0 board. These results will make having a referendum on light rail easier. The trick will be convincing the voters to join its northwestern neighbors.

National Outlook

Barring a 2006-like backlash against right wing rule in D.C., HSR won't be getting a dime until 2023 at the earliest. Even though anti-HSR Californians will hold some powerful positions in the House and continue making life miserable for the CAHSR project, the nation's only Express HSR project to be funded with stimulus funds will rely on state and private sector financing until it begins service.

Amtrak will likely see its funding slashed--maybe even significantly--but the real question is whether the new Congress will allow real competition, which would be the national operator's primary threat. With both houses soon to be in the opposition's hands, the Grand Bargain should be front and center as the alternative to the now-myopic national HSR vision President Obama laid out 5 1/2 years ago. 

Noel Braymer's editorial on how Republicans are the only ones who can save the long distance trains may very well be tested now. In order to prove Amtrak's advocates wrong, the GOP should implement any one of the three suggestions Braymer laid out. Second, congressmen and women should talk to their constituents who are starving for more train service as well as advocacy groups who want more trains in their states but aren't relying on "America's Railroad."

TIGER grants will be phased out in all likelihood. The currently negotiated TIGER VII grants will be the last funds the Obama Administration gives out to rail operators of all stripes.

Tackling the Headlines 69

Passenger rail study moves forward

Take: The next step will be the actual report itself. One more step before the Santa Cruz area gets connected to commuter and intercity rail and makes San Jose a true rail hub.

House GOP bill would force Amtrak to rethink its insane boarding process

Take: Anything that forces Amtrak to act less than an airline and more than a railroad is fine with me.

Sacramento Siemens plant to build Florida high-speed rail cars

Take: Huh? I thought that Corridor Capital had AAF's equipment in the bag.

TIGER VI Grants

Central Corridor in Connecticut

After about three years of efforts, another part of New England is about to get privately run passenger rail--and not a moment too soon. Yes, the $10.2 million was for freight improvements along the line between New London, CT and Brattleboro, VT, but the added bonus will be passenger service for residents and college students in Amherst, MA, which will be dropped by Amtrak next year. NECR will scoop in and serve the city but it's a question of when.

Southwest Chief

Another big surprise is that the beleaguered Raton Pass route received funding. The kicker is that only 20 percent of the needed improvements will be covered and as a result, the reroute via Amarillo is still in play. As a result, my proposals are still better than the recent reprieve.

M-1 Streetcar

Detroit's streetcar project got a boost in the public portion of the PPP.

Viewpoint

I'll use this space to get something off of my chest. TIGER has been a great benefit to rail and transit in general over the last five years. If the prognosticators are correct about the Senate changing hands in ;less than two months's time, this grant program is DOA because the Tea Partiers have tried to gut TIGER over the last three years. Congress had better come up with a way fund transportation projects moving forward or it will be held responsible for whatever happens to the decline of affordable transportation solutions.

Tackling the Headlines 68

Work begins — finally — on Miami-to-Orlando fast train
Take: Nothing's going to stop All Aboard Florida from running its trains. I plan on addressing the peculiar situation with train service Florida within a month.

Georgians tout passenger trains to Atlanta
Take: Georgians don't need high speed rail service. What they need is a network of well-connected lines that provide frequent service.

All Aboard Wisconsin explores privately funded passenger rail between Madison and Chicago
Take: It may be the only way Wisconsin's capital ever gets rail service.

Third Amtrak Route To D.C. And New York Coming To Lynchburg
Take: Well, it's time for there to be additional frequencies. The new trains would be the first time in decades that there would be marketable frequencies along the route because the Cardinal's times aren't conducive four times a week and it may be sold out with Midwestern passengers.

Sunshine State musings 3

It's becoming more apparent that in order for All Aboard Florida to expand to Jacksonville, Amtrak will have to be tossed in as a bone for Treasure Coast residents who've complained about AAF's plans to provide express service north of West Palm Beach. 

It's also apparent (at least to me anyway) that once FEC service is restored, someone else will be in charge of Amtrak. What does that mean for East Coast service? There are two possibilities for Jacksonville's historic Union Terminal. 

The first is that the future president/CEO pulls an Atlanta. In this scenario, the station won't even sniff its first Amtrak train since 1972 since the national carrier would continue to serve the Clifford Lane location since it wouldn't have to do any backing.

The second possibility is that Joe Boardman's successor pulls a Richmond, VA. Under this scenario, Amtrak would continue to use Clifford Lane as its primary station with the possibility of building a new station near the current location but the historic venue would also be served. Like Main Street Station, Union Terminal would only have a Quik-Trak machine as Amtrak's only contribution there (symbols in the Amtrak timetable would indicate that Union Terminal is staffed by AAF and Florida DOT rather than the circle for an unstaffed station).

Tackling the Headlines 67

Sugarcane train shutting down

In the 50th state, there will be two tourist railroads instead of three come next Friday.

Take: For a state that has very little trackage, this is a blow for anyone who wants to ride the rails on existing infrastructure.

Indy yanks Hoosier State funding

May pull out has now turned to has pulled out.

Take: I have no idea if this was Indianapolis objecting to the Hoosier State potentially becoming an Amtrak train in name only, the capital city not wanting to pay the large share of route's funding, or something else, but this definitely serves as a potential red flag for anyone who advocates municipal funding in the Section 209 Era of state-funded train service.

Caltrain will be electrified in five years

Amid all the bad news, a bit of good.

Take: This will be a boon for the region as a whole.

Tackling the Headlines 66

All Aboard Florida reveals new Fort Lauderdale station.
Take: It's almost as grand as its plans for Miami.

A setback with the Orlando station
Take: Another mixed verdict. Just as AAF takes a step forward, something else forces them to take a step or two back.

New transit center at Bob Hope Airport
Take: If only there were some space for an actual train station there. Hopefully, when CAHSR is up and running, that problem will be solved.

Life Under Section 209: Operations

Equal Operator Model
Amtrak operates part of an existing corridor but other companies run trains on a corridor’s extension.

How It Could Work: Amtrak runs the first leg of the Southeast High Speed Rail route and the Piedmont Corridor but Veolia operates the Charlotte-Atlanta and Atlanta-Jacksonville legs of SEHSR while Herzog runs the Raleigh-Jacksonville route.

Amtrak Dominant Model
Amtrak operates an entire high speed route or existing corridor while other short distance routes are handed off to private operators.

How It Could Work: Amtrak runs the entire SEHSR system while the Piedmont is handed off to the North Carolina Railroad. The Southeastern states turn to AIPRO members for non-corridor service.

METRA Model
The state DOT contracts passenger service to the railroads that own infrastructure. This is more likely to work with regional and shortline operators than with the Class I railroads.

How It Could Work: The state of Maine contracts out new passenger services to the various Class II and III railroads rather than to any passenger operator.

Amtrak Recessive Model
No one operator would have a majority of routes in a particular region but Amtrak's share would be less than 50%.

How It Could Work: After a brutal bidding process in California, Amtrak is left with only the Pacific Surfliners while Keolis runs the Capitols, Herzog wins the San Joaquins contract, and foreign operators run high speed rail routes.

Addendum: Alternative History

#1

Feasibility: High. Southern held out of Amtrak for almost eight years and was still able to run a top notch train (Crescent). Meanwhile, the Seaboard Coast Line nearly stayed out of Amtrak so it would make sense if the ACL and SAL had merged with other railroads instead of each other, they would still be running trains today.

#2

Feasibility: Moderate to high. If the federal government had reduced the burdens it imposed on the railroads much earlier, then, the U.S. would still have the world's best passenger rail system. Of course, the side effect would be that no one would be talking about high speed rail due to the efficiency of the networked rail system.

Also, the effort to provide a national intercity rail system composed of nine major railroads would have the support of the Bush 43 and Obama Administrations.

#3

Feasibility: High. Both railroads reluctantly joined Amtrak, but they could have easily have gone the other way. If the Santa Fe and the SCL had joined the six holdouts, there's no doubt that those two railroads would have continued operating trains to this day.

Amtrak would be a reduced entity because of NS's push to mandate competition in the intercity passenger sector. Section 214 of PRIIA and Amtrak's losses when it comes to bidding would have likely been a campaign issue in 2016 with Republicans wondering whether if Amtrak needs to exist at all when various host railroads and independent operators are dominating the intercity rail market.

#4

Feasibility: Low. As ideal as it might have been, the Democrats were very firm in their opposition to giving federal money to private railroads, so there wouldn't have been enough votes to do anything but to nationalize the passenger trains. 

#5

Moderate. It comes down to how much willpower the Erie and the DL&W had to serve New York City proper.

#6

Streetcars: High

Subway: High

Other rail modes: Low. Maglev is expensive and would have been excluded from the 30/10 Plan. The Airtram idea may have been scrapped just due to time. There was a limited amount of time for the People Mover to have been built, and if no tracks had been laid down by 1981, then, it just wasn't going to happen. The Monorail may have been built--only if the original subway system had already been in place. The Carveyor was just an idea that was too futuristic. 

Disrupters, Innovators & Rent Seekers in Rail

Introduction

The purpose of this post is to demonstrate how disruptions, innovations, and rent seeking apply to the world of passenger rail just like it does to any other form of business.

Here are some examples of business disruptions. Such actions have resulted in life being much better for society today. 

Rent seeking is the yang to disruption's yin. As Steve Blank says about this counterbalance:  

Rent seekers are individuals or organizations that have succeeded with existing business models and look to the government and regulators as their first line of defense against innovative competition… Rent seekers spend money to increase their share of an existing market instead of creating new products or markets…

Overhauling the Paradigm Could Make the Passenger Train Thrive Once Again

Here are some possible scenarios of how passenger rail could drastically change for the better:

• Operators provide multiple classes of service--beyond today's coach, business, first classes
• Premium and specialty food service on trains
• New operators using historic stations in major cities that are currently commuter only or have no meaningful Amtrak service
• Train tickets that include non-rail connections and transfers between multiple stations in the same city
• Rail operators providing other services at stations, like real estate agencies 
• Private industry like travel agencies and cruise companies getting into the world of passenger rail
• Expanded Auto Train service, regardless of operator
• Some ideas for unconventional rail travel Jon Fostik and I separately proposed a few years ago
• All-sleeper trains that are affordable but also offer premium rates
• The recent move by the feds to allow Caltrain to use European style equipment on U.S. tracks
• Different ways to finance passenger rail given that politicians aren't readily receptive to funding trains

Who Are Passenger Rail's Innovators Today?

Passenger rail ridership in America is at its highest in decades but most expansion plans to draw even more riders are stuck at the station due to congressional gridlock. There are disagreements over whether Amtrak—and by default, the public sector—should continue its role as a monopoly operator or if other carriers—some of whom are privately run—should be allowed to compete.

In the midst of the fight over passenger policy, there are several renegades who are not waiting for Congress or the White House to set new laws. In the last three years, Iowa Pacific has emerged as a potential shortline powerhouse by planning and providing passenger service to areas that hadn't carried people in decades while Florida East Coast’s All Aboard Florida has laid the groundwork for passenger service in 2015. 

Meanwhile in Amtrak's own backyard, Housatonic and New England Central have plans to provide service to cities that are underserved by the national carrier.

Last year, two different companies provided plans to run private service between Portland, ME and Montreal--one during the day, the other, at night. For years, the feds have included a Boston-Montreal route as part of a national high speed rail system, but the problem is that HSR money has dried up and even if it hadn't, there would have been some serious disagreements over where the route should go (via the Downeaster/western ME, central NH or Springfield, MA/Vermonter).

The Roadblocks to Innovation

Just as there are people who are thinking beyond an Amtrak (-only) world, there are many others who aren't willing to give up the existing order without a fight:

• The aviation and highway lobbies along with their allies like think tanks and politicians
• The Class I railroads and the AAR's Amtrak only stance
• Amtrak management's complacency (continued focus on the NEC at the expense of its other routes)
• Rail activists who support the status quo and oppose competition
• Amtrak friendly politicians who resist meaningful changes for the national carrier (NJ Transit & politicians and the Northeastern congressional delegation)
• A segment of the rail community that is opposed to lighter equipment being used because they allege that the European cars are "too dangerous" despite the fact that bulky equipment currently used on U.S. rails has its own safety issues
• True Believers who think that giving more money to Amtrak is the answer while failing to realize that the agency's management is too focused on the Northeast
• The FRA's inane standards on things like equipment crash-worthiness 

How Rent Seeking Is Blocking a 21st Century Rail Renaissance

I will now provide some examples of how rent seeking behavior is hurting the cause for passenger rail by responding to three of Blank's quotes:

Instead of offering better products or better service at lower prices, rent seekers hire lawyers and lobbyists to influence politicians and regulators to pass laws, write regulations and collect taxes that block competition.

When foreign operators devised plans to run HSR in late 2009 and early 2010, Amtrak was forced to create an HSR department just to keep up.

Amtrak president Joe Boardman sent a letter to four congressional leaders to impose burdens on some of these would-be HSR competitors by playing the liability card.

In 2012, the Senate proposed three provisions that would have stunted competition. Amtrak claimed plausible deniability because Senator Durbin and Majority Leader Reid took the brunt for proposing such foolishness. It wasn't coincidental that the move was directed at the very operators that have constantly outbid Amtrak on commuter contracts and formed the Association of Independent Passenger Rail Operators in 2011 to bid on intercity routes.

When companies are protected from competition, they have little incentive to cut costs or to pay attention to changing customer needs.

The Tea Party backlash of 2010 led Amtrak to primarily focus on the Northeast Corridor without much detail to the rest of the system. Remember, the non-NEC states are paying Amtrak for Section 209.

The FRA’s foot dragging on Section 214 provisions led Amtrak to tell three states to pay for a non-corridor train or lose service in 2016. That lax federal enforcement has also led Amtrak management to not make any serious efforts to provide additional equipment for the Western long distance trains.

The national operator is planning to completely phase out its remaining Heritage fleet while providing no additions to its eastern long distance capacity and completely neglecting inactive Superliners. Rumor has it is that Amtrak would rather scrap its older equipment than see other companies use it for state-sponsored services. 

Startups, investors and the public have done a poor job of calling out the politicians and regulators who use the words “innovation means jobs” while supporting rent seekers.

The Nightmare Scenario or the possibility of Amtrak only running overnight routes (plus the NEC) would stifle any hopes for reviving passenger rail in this country yet most rail advocates haven’t gotten this message, choosing instead to support the near monopoly.

On the other hand, it’s to the AIPRO’s credit that it got a jump start in challenging the rent seeking activities by pointing out the regulatory burdens. Now, someone needs to point the following out to the unions: If they are opposed to non-Amtrak operators, then they are in effect opposed to more jobs.

Conclusion

Innovation has helped other businesses and can help passenger rail—if entrepreneurs are allowed to. Rent seekers are around the corner and will seek to keep the laws as they are. If this latter group succeeds, then the public will be the biggest losers as America would continue to have mediocre rail service, and anti-rail forces will then continue to mock passenger trains as "outdated."

Tackling the Headlines 61

FL governor to fund Orlando airport intermodal station

Take: It's a change from his stance three years ago. Of course, he's also funding the terminal because he has taken a lot of beating for being more fixated on roads than rail. Whatever the case, this is nothing but a huge plus.

A couple of news items from Oklahoma 

The OK DOT has reduced the number of bidders for the Oklahoma City-Tulsa rail line from four to two: Watco-owned Stillwater Central Railroad and previous owner BNSF. At the same time, Iowa Pacific has laid down the gambit by providing a concrete plan to operate passenger service in a letter to Governor Mary Fallin even though his company missed the final cut.

Take: The ball is your court, Oklahoma. Neither the governor nor the DOT can now say that "no one will ride the the train" because ample evidence has been provided to the contrary. If that line is uttered, then, it's a clear signal on how anti-rail the state really is.

Hawaii rail project clears final hurdle

Take: The 50th state will soon have regularly scheduled rail service, which is really good news for all.

Group wants return of passenger rail, others have doubts

Take: Given that South Carolina is a "small government" state, it would be in the advocates' best interest to also talk to other passenger operators via a competitive bidding process in order to hold down costs.

About that Germany-UK service...

Delivery delays have now led to Deutsche Bahn to put the Frankfurt-London service on hold while it focuses on providing services to Brussels and Paris instead.

Take: This is a major blow to the EU's plans to open up the rails to international travel.

Nutmeg State's Central Corridor

It's almost TIGER time again, so Eastern Connecticut leaders have made a full-court press by getting Congressman Joe Courtney to lobby the feds to get funding for the Central Corridor this year.

Take: Now, the other pols in the area need to get onboard. After all, the clock is ticking for passengers in Amherst who currently take the Vermonter.

Dreams of Passenger Rail's Future

The title is from the December 2013 edition of Railfan & Railroad Magazine's Capitol Lines column written by Wes Vernon. The column was based on last year's Passenger Trains on Freight Railroads Conference where four panelists involved in the railroad industry gave their visions on the future of passenger rail in America. 

The panelists were railroad attorney John Heffner, All Aboard Florida's Gene Skoropowksi (formerly of California's Capitol Corridor), Iowa Pacific's Ed Ellis, and Amtrak VP for Governments and Corporate Communications Joe McHugh.

"More cohesion instead of the piecemeal routings here and there. The entire picture is likely less monolithic or under one entity known as Amtrak." (Heffner) 

Vernon interjected by suggesting that Amtrak remains "the 'spine' of intercity operations." Even with the failed attempt to leverage intercity and commuter rail back towards an Amtrak monopoly, "business as usual" can no longer be considered good enough for travelers.

Regarding PRIIA, Vernon looked at the possibility of states looking to private operators if they can't find alternative public funding, which in turn could lead Amtrak to using more of its equipment on longer routes. 

Once those PRIIA extensions that were signed last year expire, the states should make a serious effort to talk to other operators to reduce the cost of running their corridors. As far as the equipment goes, I have been a huge advocate of Amtrak keeping its equipment in the event states look elsewhere so that it can spread to other parts of the country.

Heffner says that there is no end to potential nationwide expansion, possibly a combination of Amtrak and non-Amtrak operators, some under contract to state or regional government agencies. It may be freight railroads, perhaps short lines or regionals deciding to just run their own passenger service. (Vernon)

There can be no end to expansion because America still has a skeletal system and other various other entities could be the key to reviving the national network.

The dream scenario leaves Amtrak as (again) the operator of most, if not all, long-distance trains. On the Northeast Corridor, Amtrak would remain the only operator other than the commuter lines. (Vernon)

A dream for who? Maybe that's a True Believer's dream scenario but as long as the current people (board and management alike) continue to run Amtrak, this is much closer to my Nightmare Scenario. President/CEO Joe Boardman and various board members have done nothing to advance long-distance trains. If anything, they're either willing to keep the status quo or see the long-distance network shrink by inaction. 

When Amtrak gets fresh blood who just won't have a dismissive attitude about expansion (i.e., always citing high costs and passing on adding routes) and is willing to consider Western passengers' needs by ordering new equipment, then will I believe that "America's Railroad" is committed to the nation as opposed to just one region.

Speaking of that one region, the NEC states' political bloc will likely use their clout to keep out anyone who may want to take on Amtrak.

Vernon cited how the shortlines are trying to get into the passenger business due to limited expansion opportunities for freight in the future.

The shortlines are proactive while the big boy railroads are reactive. The Class I railroads are focused on their specific needs and have to be goaded into dealing with passenger service (see Amtrak throwing in the towel on talking to CSX about converting the Cardinal to daily service as just one example).

The shortlines could also play the role of saviors when it comes to routes/segments/towns that are abandoned by Amtrak.

Addendum: Circa 2016 BNSF Transcon vs Raton Pass Schedules

To follow up on the last post, I have provided some schedules that result in a win-win situation for everybody involved. The first one is of the Southwest Chief rerouted onto BNSF's Transcon Route.

3	Amtrak	4
15:00	Chicago                          CT	15:15
22:45	Kansas City	7:43
0:29	Topeka	5:18
2:45	Newton	2:59
3:40	Wichita	2:09
4:30	Wellington, KS	1:19
5:53	Alva, OK	23:35
7:09	Woodward, OK	22:21
9:23	Pampa, TX	19:59
10:30	Amarillo, TX	19:08
10:50		18:48
11:37	Hereford, TX                CT	17:54
11:40	Clovis, NM                   MT	15:58
F13:42	Vaughn, NM	F13:53
15:52	Belen, NM	12:08
16:02		11:58
21:21	Flagstaff                         MT	6:35
3:03	Barstow                          PT	22:50
4:56	San Bernardino	19:53
7:39	Los Angeles                   PT	18:09

The times between Newton and Belen are based on the Santa Fe's San Francisco Chief in 1965.

The second batch of schedules are what could happen if the residents along the affected portion of the Southwest Chief are able to talk to another operator like a shortline or an independent operator. Instead of one train a day in each direction, there will be at least three frequencies because residents between Hutchinson and Albuquerque could also start building the foundation of a Rocky Mountain rail system by proposing Newton-La Junta-Denver and Albuquerque-Trinidad-Denver services and localized Raton Pass runs that would serve fewer cities at more marketable times.

1001	1003	1005	Rocky Mountain Rail	1002	1004	1006
2:45	10:45	18:45	Newton                                               CT	18:55	2:55	10:55
3:20	11:20	19:20	Hutchinson, KS	18:19	2:19	10:19
5:25	13:25	21:25	Dodge City, KS	16:27	0:27	8:27
6:21	14:21	22:21	Garden City, KS                               CT	15:17	23:17	7:17
6:59	14:59	22:59	Lamar, CO                                        MT	12:40	20:40	4:40
8:15	16:15	0:15	La Junta, CO	11:41	19:41	3:41
8:20	16:20	0:20		11:36	19:36	3:36
9:40	17:40	1:40	Trinidad, CO	9:39	17:39	1:39
10:46	18:46	2:46	Raton, NM	8:40	16:40	0:40
12:28	20:28	4:28	Las Vegas, NM	6:53	14:53	22:53
14:14	22:14	6:14	Lamy, NM	5:07	13:07	21:07
16:00	24:00	8:00	Albuquerque	3:47	11:47	19:47
16:40	0:40	8:40	Belen                                                   MT	3:07	11:07	19:07

I have cut the dwell times in La Junta and Albuquerque to five minutes. As far connections go, #3 to #1001 and #1004 to #4 are guaranteed for anyone traveling between Chicago and Albuquerque. Anyone who wants to travel to Arizona and points west could use #1005, a local Raton Pass run, or a Denver-Albuquerque/Rail Runner combo.