2018 Midterms and Rail

Here are my rapid fire responses to the midterms and their impact on passenger rail.

West Coast
CA: The incoming governor may shift which segments of CAHSR get built next. When it comes to the main opponents of the project, two out of the three are gone—Valadao and Denham lost their House races but McCarthy will become the new House Minority Leader.

Southwest
NM: Here’s to hoping that Michelle Lujan Grisham is vastly more pro-rail than her predecessor.

Midwest
MN: Maybe the second Chicago-Twin Cities frequency will accelerate now.
WI: Governor No Train is finally ousted and he lost based on a rule that he created that prevented a recount by a certain margin. Serves him right.
IA: Kim Reynolds holding onto the governor’s mansion and soon to be serving a full term means that a Quad Cities-Omaha extension will be off the table for at least another four years.
IL: Once the Quad Cities route gets up and running, the question is which route will be next on the agenda. The Black Hawk revival? Rockford service? Something else?
OH: Oh dear, Mike DeWine had the most ambiguous position out of the four gubernatorial candidates in regards to transit needs, which may mean the status quo in Columbus.

Southeast
AL: Earlier this year, Kay Ivey passed on providing money to reviving the Mobile-New Orleans Gulf Coast Limited route. That seemed to conclude a spat between the governor and the Southern Rail Commission but a couple of weeks later, advocates pressed forward with building a new station in Mobile. Ivey got elected to a full term but is less inclined to even support any type of passenger rail than her predecessor, who at least explored the possibility of a PPP before an impeachment threat forced him to step down.
GA: As to what the new governor will do in advancing passenger rail, your guess is as good as mine. If anything, Georgians may be better off hoping that Sir Richard’s venture serves the Atlanta-Charlotte market in the interim.
FL: It will be up to the public to push Ron DeSantis to implement a statewide rail system to connect Floridians. Over the past six or so years, region after region has expressed its interest in reviving rail service in some capacity. Now is the time to not only provide a system but to also prove that a state can develop on without Amtrak. Don’t just leave everything to Brightline/Virgin.
NC: Roy Cooper can now veto rail-unfriendly legislation, which would be a sigh of relief for mass transit.

Northeast
CT: We shall see if the new governor is more open to funding the Housatonic and New England Central routes now that the Hartford Line is finally up and running. 
MA: Conversely, we’ll also see if Charlie Baker and the legislature are able to produce any new routes in the Bay State.
ME: Hopefully, the Pine Tree State will move out of its neutral position and develop more routes.

Tackling the Headlines 63

Amtrak, companies submit proposals on Hoosier State
Take #1: Whether anyone likes it or not, this is the wave of the future and supporters of the status quo should just get used to it.

Take #2: The ball is now in Indiana's court. Its DOT is the one that wanted to move away from automatically handing things over to Amtrak so now it has to give the mandate to the winner that the Chicago-Indianapolis route be no worse than daily.

Province to study possible high-speed rail line from London to Toronto

Take: I don't see much political will there.

X Train Holdings Reaches Agreement to Operate Santa Fe Southern Railroad Excursion Services

Take: It's the only good thing that X Train has done.

NM railroads to focus on freight, not passengers, says new plan

Take: I apologize that The Land of Enchantment doesn't have any imaginative leaders.

Addendum: Circa 2016 BNSF Transcon vs Raton Pass Schedules

To follow up on the last post, I have provided some schedules that result in a win-win situation for everybody involved. The first one is of the Southwest Chief rerouted onto BNSF's Transcon Route.

3	Amtrak	4
15:00	Chicago                          CT	15:15
22:45	Kansas City	7:43
0:29	Topeka	5:18
2:45	Newton	2:59
3:40	Wichita	2:09
4:30	Wellington, KS	1:19
5:53	Alva, OK	23:35
7:09	Woodward, OK	22:21
9:23	Pampa, TX	19:59
10:30	Amarillo, TX	19:08
10:50		18:48
11:37	Hereford, TX                CT	17:54
11:40	Clovis, NM                   MT	15:58
F13:42	Vaughn, NM	F13:53
15:52	Belen, NM	12:08
16:02		11:58
21:21	Flagstaff                         MT	6:35
3:03	Barstow                          PT	22:50
4:56	San Bernardino	19:53
7:39	Los Angeles                   PT	18:09

The times between Newton and Belen are based on the Santa Fe's San Francisco Chief in 1965.

The second batch of schedules are what could happen if the residents along the affected portion of the Southwest Chief are able to talk to another operator like a shortline or an independent operator. Instead of one train a day in each direction, there will be at least three frequencies because residents between Hutchinson and Albuquerque could also start building the foundation of a Rocky Mountain rail system by proposing Newton-La Junta-Denver and Albuquerque-Trinidad-Denver services and localized Raton Pass runs that would serve fewer cities at more marketable times.

1001	1003	1005	Rocky Mountain Rail	1002	1004	1006
2:45	10:45	18:45	Newton                                               CT	18:55	2:55	10:55
3:20	11:20	19:20	Hutchinson, KS	18:19	2:19	10:19
5:25	13:25	21:25	Dodge City, KS	16:27	0:27	8:27
6:21	14:21	22:21	Garden City, KS                               CT	15:17	23:17	7:17
6:59	14:59	22:59	Lamar, CO                                        MT	12:40	20:40	4:40
8:15	16:15	0:15	La Junta, CO	11:41	19:41	3:41
8:20	16:20	0:20		11:36	19:36	3:36
9:40	17:40	1:40	Trinidad, CO	9:39	17:39	1:39
10:46	18:46	2:46	Raton, NM	8:40	16:40	0:40
12:28	20:28	4:28	Las Vegas, NM	6:53	14:53	22:53
14:14	22:14	6:14	Lamy, NM	5:07	13:07	21:07
16:00	24:00	8:00	Albuquerque	3:47	11:47	19:47
16:40	0:40	8:40	Belen                                                   MT	3:07	11:07	19:07

I have cut the dwell times in La Junta and Albuquerque to five minutes. As far connections go, #3 to #1001 and #1004 to #4 are guaranteed for anyone traveling between Chicago and Albuquerque. Anyone who wants to travel to Arizona and points west could use #1005, a local Raton Pass run, or a Denver-Albuquerque/Rail Runner combo.

The Type of Rail Reform That's Needed

It’s almost time for Congress to take up the next rail reauthorization bill. Here are my recommendations:

State-Supported Trains

Congress should make it much easier for states to select other operators by mandating a competitive bidding process. The interest is clearly there, and these two 2011 stories expressed the Association of Independent Passenger Rail Operators’ interest in running corridors. However, the hysteria surrounding PRIIA Section 209 got in the way. 

Regarding point #8 that NARP laid out in its vision for the reauthorization bill, if Congress enacts this, then, these 18 states operating 19 corridors will continue paying high costs to Amtrak and leave them vulnerable to shifting political climates (see WI and OH when it comes to conventional rail--never mind what FL did to high speed rail). These corridors shouldn't just be about Amtrak because there are routes that would be better off operated by someone else.

I would much rather see the states divided into nine regions (mostly based on regional pacts like MWHSR) and being protected the way German state routes are. 

Long Distance Routes

Since the Federal Railway Administration failed to do its job with Section 214, it’s up to Congress to permit some type of competition. As a matter of fact, Congress should force the FRA to conduct a pilot program that allows an overnight route to be leased out to another entity for five years (this route would get enough money to make it profitable). Congress should also make it much easier for private organizations to partner with the hosts because if Amtrak is unwilling to add sufficient equipment or routes to expand the national system, someone else must be given a shot.

Needed: A National Rail Network

It has been three years since President Obama’s effort at building a national HSR network collapsed. In its place, calls for “high performance rail” have surfaced. 

In that vein, the federal government should conduct a study on how much it would cost to upgrade the national network via Interstate II (Exhibits A & B) and rail highways (Exhibits C & D).

Ideally, existing overnight routes would be linked to each other and to former routes and segments that were abandoned by Amtrak and the fallen flags of old. This type of overhaul may not be as flashy as a nationwide high speed rail network, but it would be less costly, connect more travelers, and serve more people.

A Remedy for the Southwest Chief

Speaking of a national intercity rail network, the feds should begin the process of building one by having the FRA or the USDOT take over the 700-mile stretch of the Raton Pass Route between Newton, KS and Albuquerque, NM in 2016. Whatever agency controls the route would then upgrade the tracks and have an open bidding process where freight and passenger entities would be selected to provide service to customers and residents in KS, CO and NM. Based on space, the Raton Pass Route would be at least double tracked throughout and even have separate freight and passenger rights of way.

The shortline company or independent operator that replaces the Southwest Chief should then be allowed to provide connections in Newton to Amtrak and Belen, NM to Amtrak and Rail Runner trains. It goes without saying that this new entity would also have more than one frequency along its route and that Amtrak would then reroute the Southwest Chief onto BNSF’s Transcontinental Route.  

Alternative History #3

Scenario

The Santa Fe and the Seaboard Coast Line join Southern, the Rio Grande, Rock Island and Georgia Railroad in holding out of Amtrak

Point of Departure

1971

Storyline

And Then There Were Two

Even as Southern and the Rio Grande join Amtrak, the ATSF and the renamed Seaboard System refuse to give in during the early 1980s. The two railroads continue to take pride in their passenger trains. CSX even names its subdivision for north-south routes after the Seaboard Air Line (later, east-west routes are part of the Chesapeake-Baltimore & Ohio Subdivision named after the C&O and B&O respectively).

The Seaboard Subdivision's effectiveness and BNSF's passenger expansion plans in the late 00's lead to some of the other Class I railroads to seriously ponder reentering the passenger business. 

Because neither BNSF nor CSX abandons routes where passenger service is prevalent, lower priority routes are handled differently. BNSF gives the Raton Pass and Mountain Range Routes to a coalition headed by Genesee & Wyoming (the move was first proposed by the acquired Rail America in 2010) and the Association of Independent Passenger Rail Operators, which outbid Iowa Pacific Holdings in late 2012 (the deal also includes a route that stretches between Denver and Albuquerque).

The Southeast Becomes a Rail Leader

The Southeast Rail Coalition is formed in the late 1980s to promote expanded passenger rail in the region. The pact is composed of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. The basis for the SERC stemmed from the S-Line not having enough daylight trains between Richmond and Jacksonville rather than CSX's coincidental plans on making the A-Line its primary north-south route. It's due to this arrangement that certain small towns along the S-Line continue to have train service today.

Amtrak's Role in the South

The Floridian is reinstated in the 1980s by Graham Claytor because he realizes that Midwestern travelers need a route to the Sunshine State. The route is different, though: Chicago-Cincinnati-Atlanta-Savannah-Jacksonville-Tampa/Miami (a second roundtrip was added in 1989 but was eliminated in 1997 as a victim of the Mercer Cuts, and a 2009 feasibility study to restore the second frequency goes nowhere). Amtrak's services in Virginia and the Auto Train exist as they do in our timeline except that the Cardinal is daily because enough equipment is available. Amtrak also has a daytime Chicago-Nashville route.

Another Path For the Carolinian

The Carolinian is launched in 1984 but connects with a re-timed Colonial in Richmond instead of the Palmetto. During the hiatus, a disagreement erupts over routing. When it restarts in 1990, the Carolinian is composed of two Raleigh-Asheville frequencies with one of them splitting in Salisbury to continue to Charlotte. Another restructuring in 1995 leads to the Charlotte leg being renamed the Piedmont and its own frequency.

Stations

Raleigh: The Carolinian (both incarnations--backup moves were done when the train went all the way to Boston) has served the Southern Railway depot on West Cabarrus Street from the outset while CSX trains continue to serve the Semart Street station. However, a unified station only began construction this year after years of disagreements among the rail operators, SERC's SEHSR leaders and the city over things like station location and size (CSX decided to move to another location because it cost much more to modernize the SAL location when it had already expanded it twice).

Richmond: Amtrak builds Staples Mill Road Station and only stops there. CSX trains stop at the Broad Street Station, which is a major hub. Main Street Station is home to various non-rail business uses and is also a historic landmark.

Atlanta: Amtrak left the Peachtree Station in the early 1990s for a new location on 17th Street that serves both the Crescent and the Floridian. For a while, a special stop for the Floridian was located north of town. Today, CSX, SERC and SEHSR trains stop at a downtown location near the old Terminal Station that is being expanded for multimodal use.

Jacksonville: Amtrak is the only occupant of the Clifford Lane station in Jacksonville as other operators serve the Union Terminal. 

Orlando: An Amshack is built on Sand Lake Road in the '70s. During Sunrail construction, passengers temporarily use the Sanford Auto Train terminal. The new Sand Lake Road Station is large enough to accompany Sunrail as well as Amtrak.

Tampa-St. Pete: The St. Petersburg ACL station's days are numbered as CSX and FL DOT are in the process of building a downtown multimodal center to provide expanded access. Meanwhile, Amtrak opted to terminate a portion of the Floridian at Tampa Union Station, which was the only station in the state that was jointly shared by it and the SCL/Seaboard System/CSX between 1974 and the recent rail revival.

Miami: The old SAL station was used by CSX and FL DOT until the Miami Intermodal Center opened in 2008 (Amtrak used its current station as in OTL). Due to frequent communication by the state and the host railroad, there were no platform or traffic issues with the trains entering or exiting the station (a bridge with NW 25th Street over the tracks was built). Today, all operators except All Aboard Florida stop at the station near the airport.

Other Florida cities: Amtrak stops at Sanford Sunrail, Alamonte Springs, Starke, Bushnell, Lake Worth, downtown Lakeland, and all Tri-Rail stations except Delray Beach. Okeechobee is only served by FL DOT trains.

Galesburg, IL: Amtrak serves the S. Seminary Street station for the California Zephyr and the Carl Sandburg/Illinois Zephyr routes while BNSF still stops at the N. Broad Street station because there is no rerouting for any trains following the merger between the Santa Fe and Burlington Northern.

Today’s Likely Outcome

Norfolk Southern is largely responsible for Section 214 of PRIIA being much tougher in favor of competition because its management team envied BNSF and CSX for running viable passenger trains during the mid-2000s.  

NCDOT won stimulus funding for Charlotte Gateway Station and SEHSR in 2009. Gateway Station recently celebrated its first year anniversary.

Competitive bidding leads to Amtrak operating fewer routes outside of the Northeast and even being challenged by CSX--which promotes Grand Central Terminal heavily--on the Empire Corridor.

After Amtrak couldn't give CSX a concrete answer on when it would resume service on the New Orleans-Orlando portion of the Sunset Limited, the host railroad took it upon itself to restore the missing link in 2007. Today, the route is daily and extends to Miami, leading to an A-Line frequency being rerouted to the S-Line by FL DOT (local Pensacola-Jacksonville runs were added in 2009 and this past January).

Tackling the Headlines 57

Southwest Chief latest

Earlier this week, Amtrak told New Mexico, Colorado, and Kansas that in order to keep the Southwest Chief on the current Raton Pass Route, they have to pay up. BNSF doesn't want to pay to upgrade the route between a junction south of Albuquerque and Newton, KS. If nothing happens, Amtrak will reroute the Chief to serve destinations like Amarillo, TX and Wichita.

Take #1: This is extortion--plain and simple! Amtrak knows that it should not be forcing the states to pay for intercity service. It looks to me that Amtrak is doing to the Mountain States--and the Gulf States four years ago--what Union Pacific did to it in early 2009 with that preposterous $750 million ransom to convert the Sunset Limited to daily service.

Take #2: The possibility of the Southwest Chief being rerouted in 2016 is partially the feds' fault because they took an eternity to just follow Section 214 of PRIIA. I have been a strong advocate of this provision because Amtrak needed (and still needs) a strong kick in the pants. Long story short, the FRA should have forced bidding on the long distance routes so other companies could present their case to drastically improve the national train system over what we have today. The provision expired last month along with the rest of the 2008 law.

Take #3: If the FRA, the USDOT and anyone else in Washington really care about passenger train travel, this is the time to show the American public what they are made of. 

My recommendations are as follows: First, pass a brand new rail reauthorization bill that mandates a competitive process for the overnight trains. Second, either the FRA or the USDOT should take over the nearly 700-mile stretch of track and redevelop it over a long period of time. Finally, get the Association of Independent Passenger Rail Operators and the shortline/regional holding companies involved. Let the AIPRO entities or the shortlines carry people while the holding companies haul goods. 

What Amtrak then does with a rerouted Chief afterwards will be up to Boardman or his successor.

The Vegas X-Train waves the white flag

Las Vegas Railway Express, also known as the X-Train, has given up its efforts to provide service between Metro Los Angeles and Las Vegas. CEO Michael Barron is now pushing Amtrak to restore the Desert Wind route.

Take #1: Good luck with trying to get Amtrak to restore even the Los Angeles-Las Vegas portion of the route. There has been nothing but talk on that front since 1997. 

Take #2: And then there were two. Paul Druce covered Vegas X-Train's financial troubles in March and was more than vindicated.

Take #3: Like I said back in April, the Pullman Palace Car Company knows something that we don't know.

European competition part 1

Hong Kong-based MTR is expanding its services in Sweden as it goes from solely operating Stockholm's Metro to also competing against the national operator on the Stockholm-Goteborg route.

Take #1: Hey, even in an egalitarian society like Sweden, the government has no problem with letting others face off against its own operator. This should be a lesson for all of you True Believers who continue to fear or ignore independent operators.

Take #2: MTR Express's vehicles kind of fall in line with what happens when more than one company runs trains along any given route--lots of equipment creativity.

European competition part 2

Things have gotten nasty in Italy between state-owned Trenitalia and the Ferrari-owned NTV, which operates the Italo.

Take: Italy shows that any country that plans on providing competition needs to have a concrete plan in place. Since the government didn't do this, Trenitalia is resorting to monopolistic tactics and sabotage, and it also shows that as bad as Amtrak's complacency has been towards other operators, it's worse in Italy.