Cascades #501 Crash & PTC

Last month's crash in Lakewood, WA has sparked a rash of overreactions nationally and a bunch of unnecessary "I-told-you-sos" from locals.

Let's Get Something Out of the Way

First off, the reroute was not a mistake, it was something that the state thought out in advance. As scenic as the Point Defiance route was, it was also single track.

Second, the blame for what happened last month can be attributed of a deficient safety culture inside Amtrak.

The PTC Bug

Certain members of Congress have urged the UDSOT to make December 31 a hard deadline for all railroads to install Positive Train Control (under the 2015 law, extensions to the end of 2020 will only be granted under certain circumstances).

I find this to be a bit of pretentious grandstanding by Congress since it created the problem by overreacting to another tragedy! For those unaware, the tragedy that sparked PTC in the first place was the Chatsworth disaster in 2008. The problem with the way it was implemented was that Congress told every railroad that it not only had to install the device but that said railroads would have to pay out of their own pockets. That demand reflects just how much of an anti-government attitude Washington has had since 1981. If Congress had taken the lead, it would have footed the bill instead.

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Niagara Falls, NY opens new station, but no trains stop there
Take: It's likely that this scenario could play out in other places in the future, quite possibly in Jacksonville. After all, it has already played out this way in Atlanta where Amtrak refused to even consider relocating downtown.

Forgotten subway
Take: It's an insight to how far Cincinnati has been left in the dust.

No quick fixes for aging transit systems
Take: It's all about the public will. It's well past time that everybody pays attention to infrastructure issues and demands elected officials to properly fund infrastructure.

Talgos: From Wisconsin to Michigan to California
Take: This is a smart move given everything that has happened over the last year. Michigan was unable to close the deal for the trainsets Scott Walker walked away from the Madison extension and a desperate need for extra cars given that Nippon-Sharyo has jeopardized the stimulus-funded double decker car order.

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Critics target $58M state deal for Amtrak rail cars
Take: The brouhaha over which type of cars should be used is much better than whether any new cars should be used at all (*ahem* Wisconsin). Hopefully, the idled Talgos will not go the way of the Turboliners. The loser should be offering their service to Indiana for expanded Hoosier State service.

Leaders Break Ground On New Niagara Falls Train Station
Take: The new station will look much better than the existing one. It will also be a great welcome for Canadian travelers.

More delays for the D.C. Streetcar
Take: What a mess! I know that the nation's capital hasn't had any streetcars since 1962, but D.C. residents may end up with limited streetcar service due to the extremely high amount of incompetence.

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East-west Amtrak corridor promoted in Illinois
Take: This is looking like a Plan B since Iowa is totally uncooperative with extending the route across its state. Maybe, when Terry Branstad is sent to the retirement home, the Iowa DOT can return to Earth and provide the funds to produce a route that is not necessarily operated by Amtrak and doesn't necessarily stop at Union Station in Chicago.

Black Hawk update
Take: So, is Canadian National trying to replace Union Pacific as the most passenger hostile Class I railroad? Anyway, it's better to get part of a route working than to end up with with a situation like Ohio.

Indiana puts the Hoosier State up for bid...
Take #1: So, it begins. If Amtrak loses this route, then, this will be a ripple effect across the nation as other states look more closely at their budgets, with the goal of saving money by selecting the operator who will provide them the most service for the smallest amount.

Take #2: My official take and what it could mean for Amtrak can be found here.

Take #3: Assuming that all of the hurdles with the tracks and all six hosts are overcome, the new operator could extend one frequency to Cincinnati with a second one to follow shortly thereafter and another to Louisville for a total of four Chicago-Indianapolis frequencies plus the Cardinal.

Take #4: The only thing I don't like is the extremely short timespan that other companies have to submit bids. However, if a competent operator steps up, then the April 29 deadline will be moot.

...and Oregon and Washington State could be next
Take: If this happens, then Amtrak management should very, very worried because the Cascades' southern neighbor could follow.

Talgo shifts its focus where?
Take: Even Michigan is interested in making Wisconsin look foolish. Enjoy those leftover Horizon Cars, Scott Walker.

Chief fight moves to Congress 
Take: Now is the time for the innovators and D.C. pols to step up and provide a real workable solution.

Vermont House OKs Ethan Allen rail extension
Take: This move is the right one. Rather than rerouting an existing train, Vermonters will get an extra option to travel to New York City.

Rail and the 2012 Election Part 2

PRIIA Section 209

Whether we get meaningful reform or no reform at all will be determined by this time in 2016 but a more imminent issue will affect the world of intercity rail: How will states pay for corridors? This particular section of the 2008 law mandates that all non-NEC corridors will have to be paid full cost by the states by next October.

The horror stories have slowly trickled out. So far, the fretting has come from areas that either have gotten a free ride from Amtrak or routes that are considered to be part of the Amtrak system. I have to openly wonder if the rail community or states ever paid attention to this provision. Instead of whining about having to pay up next fall, states ought to look at the competition provision that allows them to bid their routes to other operators. If they do this, then it may cost less for someone else to run the service.

FRA reform

Neither Obama nor Romney brought it up during the presidential campaign but reforming the FRA is imperative during the president's second term. If Mica hasn't already brought it up in the last 20 months, then he needs to during one his last three hearings during the lame duck session because the Federal Railroad Administration is broken.

Let me count the ways on how the agency's become burdensome:

• The Greenbrier Express fiasco
• Drama with Talgo dating back to the turn of the millennium
• Playing favorites when it comes to states selecting railcars

If Caltrain can get a waiver and successfully demonstrate that lighter equipment can make it here in America, why can't the FRA get with the program and curb the requirement that trains have to resemble tanks?

Some railfans have defended the agency's actions--some have even used 9/11 to justify the bulky equipment--but Stephen Smith, Paul Druce, Drunk Engineer, and Alon Levy have all refuted such nonsense. If the White House and Congress fail to change the FRA's methods, we will continue to have mediocre to poor rail service with oversized vehicles.

The rail community's strategy

Now is the time to not just support Amtrak but to embrace all companies who want to provide intercity service in America. Since high speed rail is at best on hold, the focus should be on rebuilding our intercity rail system (i.e., the long-distance routes), making sure that corridors are operated at the lowest cost possible since many states continue to face budget deficits, and being open to entrepreneurial approaches.

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Well, it seemed important at the time...
Two stories that I won't be giving any more time to are based in California and Wisconsin.

Take: In the case of the former, it's good news-bad news. Good news in that the repeal CAHSR initiative won't be on this fall's ballot. Bad news in that enough signatures were collected for the repeal to be on the 2014 ballot! This means that the advocates for European-style high speed rail have to really step up their game so they aren't in for a rude awakening. 

When it comes to the Badger State, all I can say is: KICK WALKER OUT IN 2014! Given all of the drama surrounding the Talgo cars and the mentality from the governor and his allies that using leftover 22-year-old Horizon cars is a sound strategy, Wisconsin is bound to have second rate rail service as neighboring states upgrade their equipment and add new routes.

Santa Cruz branch line to get a new owner
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Iowa Pacific was tapped to operate the Santa Cruz Branch Line earlier this month. This comes off the shortline holding company beating out four other companies and the line's previous owner being locked in a bitter battle with Union Pacific.

Take: While this will be the reverse of the Saratoga & North Creek (freight first, passenger second out west while IP rolled out the passenger service in New York first). Provided that everything goes well, the Bay Area could be well served by a multi-rail system that carries people (Amtrak, Caltrain, CAHSR, and Iowa Pacific all serving San Jose) by 2022. 

Also, a government organization is the one responsible for tapping the emerging shortline powerhouse. As a result, Ed Ellis and company will be the ones on the hook for any profit or loss. That's vital since Caltrain and others like it were in recent years struggling to keep service at current levels.

Tackling the Headlines 15

China as an HSR superpower

We can pretty much count China out when it comes to setting the standard for fast trains. Last month, a train crash killed 39 passengers and left 192 others injured. Given the recent news about its disgraced rail minister, it was only a matter of time before something like what happened on the 23^rd actually did happen. 

Take: The flaws in China’s HSR system demonstrate two things:

      1. China cannot continue building on the cheap and expect a world-class product.

      2. The crash has likely put China Railways from being a top three contender for operating the CAHSR route to a longshot because the blow will be that crippling.

Iowa Pacific 1, Amtrak 1

Early last month, a court ruled in favor of Iowa Pacific after it was prevented from reviving the Ski Train on liability grounds. The end result is that Amtrak has to pay the shortline railroad holding company $1.1 million in damages and found the national carrier in breach of an oral contract.

Take: This is now the second time in months that Amtrak has gotten significant pushback over its liability demands. Late last year, the carrier backed off of its demands that SunRail bear the full burden in the event an Amtrak train collided with the up-and-coming commuter railroad.


Now that Congress has resolved the debt ceiling mess, it needs to get back to doing something constructive on the passenger rail front. In addition to enforcing Sections 214 and 502 of PRIIA, it has to rewrite the liability guidelines so anyone who wants to start up railroad service doesn't get punished for operating service.

Plans for Oakland’s old train station

Oakland's historic station on 16^th and Wood Streets is getting a facelift.

Take: What the infamous '89 earthquake taketh away, community revival will give back. People in Buffalo and Detroit should take some lessons from this experiment, even if the East Bay's former Southern Pacific station is no longer fit for rail use.

Badger state stupidity part 1

The long-planned Kenosha-Racine-Milwaukee commuter line is derailed before it leaves the station.

Take: That sputtering sound is southeastern Wisconsinites having to take increasingly congested interstates.

Badger state stupidity part 2

Wisconsin will spend $31 million to upgrade the Milwaukee-Chicago route. This comes after the feds rebuffed the state in May when Florida's funds were redistributed.

Take: In both parts of WI coverage, this has Governor Scott Walker's fingerprints are all over them. Like I said three months ago, I have absolutely no sympathy for a man who OPENLY campaigned via an anti-train website against the extension of the Hiawathas westward! I have nothing but antipathy for a governor who returns federal money, only to spend his state's money on working on a glorified interurban route. The conundrum also falls on WIDOT's shoes because it failed in its responsibility to properly market the route as an extension as opposed to a brand new route. I hope that Wisconsinites remember all the ill Walker has done for their state in three or seven years as they are stuck with ugly Horizon cars and only a few new Talgo cars once the Spanish carmaker is long gone, and they also look at how neighboring states fare with their new services as the Hiawathas remain stagnant.

Oregon's Next Step

Out west, an alternative known as the Oregon Electric Line is being promoted by Beaver State officials. Under this plan, the Cascades would shift its Portland-Eugene routing westward to rails currently operated by the Portland & Western, and frequencies would triple from two to six between the two cities. However, advocacy group AORTA strongly disagrees with the alignment and wants ORDOT to keep the Cascades on the Union Pacific route.

The state wants to move the train onto the Class III railroad because the former Southern Pacific route is near capacity. It is worth pointing out that Union Pacific is studying ways to double track the 124-mile line. Meanwhile, AORTA contends that the move is unnecessary, lets the state DOT know that the Capitols in CA have over a 90% on time performance rate, correctly points out that there is no signaling on the P&W route, and that Oregon City, which opened its station in 2004, would lose Cascades service (and perhaps only be available for afternoon rush hour travelers via the Coast Starlight) while Salem would be forced to build a new station.

In the March issue of Trains Magazine, freelance writer Scott Lothes said that upgrades on either route would require "substantial investment," which, according to state officials in Salem, would be billions of dollars. The options to deal with this are many, ranging from the aforementioned two to letting P&W run the Cascades, to splitting up the Portland-Eugene roundtrips so that up to three of them utilize the shortline route. I don't know whether Oregon is a frequent participant in the economic incentives game, but, regardless, I suggest this for the state: Give some incentives to the Portland & Western and its parent company to upgrade the tracks and signalize the the line. Maybe, tapping the railroad or some other independent operator to run standalone Portland-Eugene service would engender some "friendly competition." Also, the OE route could once again live up to its name as "Oregon Electric" as it becomes upgraded to Express HSR while the improved UP line would remain in place as Regional HSR.

Tackling the Headlines

NOTE: This is a new feature where I will dissect the fallout of the most noteworthy news events.


Obama Administration redirects HSR money from OH and WIThirteen states are now the beneficiaries of almost $2 billion in stimulus funds that were destined for Columbus and Madison all thanks to the voters electing two anti-rail governors last month. I have no sympathy for the governors-elect or the people who voted for them in the first place. Everybody knew that Kasich and Walker specifically campaigned against rail extension in their states but they swept them in anyway. The only people that I feel sorry for are the folks who tried their hardest to educate the voters on the facts of rail travel.

Talgo is now following through on its pledge to leave the Badger State since Mr. "No Train" Walker has now cost his state jobs and money. Both governors in waiting were moronic for even suggesting that stimulus funds be used for highways when the administration explictly stated that the money must be used for passenger rail! So, if they are dumb enough to sue the president for the lost money, then a pox on their executive mansions!

Virgin recommits to HSR in the U.S.
After over a year and a half of being out of the spotlight, Virgin Trains once again expressed its interest in operating Florida's HSR route. It will be no easy task, given that Japan's JR Central expressed an interest almost a year ago to develop and operate the 84-mile route, SNCF last year drew up a detailed plan for the Sunshine State, and the Chinese are on everyone's heels with their own plans for Florida. But I do think that Branson's entrepreneurial spirit will make it a lot of fun for anyone who likes to see private involvement in rail.

Meanwhile, 3,000 miles to the west, Branson thinks that having a Las Vegas-Los Angeles train would be "great." Hmm, maybe he's looking at the Desert Lightning, which would also have an L.A.-Phoenix route as well as a Vegas to Phoenix route. If not, he could easily be the sixth hopeful to propose and eventually develop a route between the City of Lights and the City of Angels.

The Midterms and Rail

Last Tuesday, rail advocates were mostly wallowing in misery after anti-rail candidates won offices.

Wisconsin
Scott Walker campaigned as the guy who would pull the plug on the Hiawatha extension to Madison. Last Monday, outgoing governor Jim Doyle signed a deal with the feds to go ahead with construction of the route. However, construction was halted days after Walker's win. Even stranger still was the governor-elect's plea to Talgo to stay in the Badger State even though he was the one to create an anti-train site. If Walker really wants to focus on highways and stop the rail project, he will have to deal with the consequences like lost jobs, passengers in southeast WI continuing to ride outdated and unreliable Horizon cars, and putting the entire Chicago-Twin Cities HSR route in jeopardy.

Ohio
Ex-congressman John Kasich is even more serious about killing the 3C route than Walker is the Madison extension. The gubernatorial elections in OH and WI may have been more about the voters wanting to stick it to the president than anything else. Ergo, they should not complain when there's no dependable train service in their states in the upcoming years.

The fact that the Buckeye State's governor-elect was able to get away with calling the Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati route a 39 mph project when it was continuously disproven completely baffles me. The starting speed is 79 mph with long-term plans to provide a 110 mph speed.

John Kasich is not the only person responsible for letting a very sensible rail project become stillborn--the Ohio Rail Development Commission also deserves blame because they were the ones who relied on an Amtrak report from 2009. If the officials in Columbus had done their homework, then they would have at least talked to one or two other operators for a different analysis. After all, the PRIIA allows states to talk to other rail companies. There are various companies that are lining up to run intercity train routes in the U.S.

If the ORDC had taken a page from the folks out west, then Kasich would have been unable to spread his 39 mph lie and Amtrak would be looking behind its shoulder due to a second player providing service in a vital state.