A wasted decade

Around this time a decade ago, the passenger rail community was gearing up for President Obama's announcement of high speed rail funding and it looked like a renaissance was upon us. Rather than the sky being the limit, here's what actually happened:

• The infamous Tea Party backlash that resulted in Wisconsin (Hiawatha extension to Madison), Ohio (3C Route) and Florida (Express HSR Tampa-Orlando-Miami route) returning their stimulus money to the feds
• A trade group composed of Amtrak's commuter competitors being formed but ignored by the press and blacked out among most rail activists
• A failed attempt by Senators Dick Durbin and Harry Reid to drive private operators out of the commuter business
• A successful power play by Joe Boardman, the NEC congressional slate and NARP that kept the Northeast Corridor from being rehabbed based on a clever yet deceitful PR campaign
• The Hoosier State being eliminated
• The loss of the Silver Star diner
• No advocacy for the long distance routes from the people who matter the most
• Congress passing another rail reform bill but failing to enforce competition provisions
• Amtrak stripping ticketing and checked baggage from numerous stations throughout the country
• An ex-airline executive currently runs Amtrak and has alienated almost everyone with his moves

The status quo has prevailed and there has been little progress in the 10 years since. The vast majority of rail advocates have exposed themselves as little more than a bunch of Amtrak shills. As far as NARP, its name change is pretty much an indication that it is taking a step backward.

2018 Midterms and Rail

Here are my rapid fire responses to the midterms and their impact on passenger rail.

West Coast
CA: The incoming governor may shift which segments of CAHSR get built next. When it comes to the main opponents of the project, two out of the three are gone—Valadao and Denham lost their House races but McCarthy will become the new House Minority Leader.

Southwest
NM: Here’s to hoping that Michelle Lujan Grisham is vastly more pro-rail than her predecessor.

Midwest
MN: Maybe the second Chicago-Twin Cities frequency will accelerate now.
WI: Governor No Train is finally ousted and he lost based on a rule that he created that prevented a recount by a certain margin. Serves him right.
IA: Kim Reynolds holding onto the governor’s mansion and soon to be serving a full term means that a Quad Cities-Omaha extension will be off the table for at least another four years.
IL: Once the Quad Cities route gets up and running, the question is which route will be next on the agenda. The Black Hawk revival? Rockford service? Something else?
OH: Oh dear, Mike DeWine had the most ambiguous position out of the four gubernatorial candidates in regards to transit needs, which may mean the status quo in Columbus.

Southeast
AL: Earlier this year, Kay Ivey passed on providing money to reviving the Mobile-New Orleans Gulf Coast Limited route. That seemed to conclude a spat between the governor and the Southern Rail Commission but a couple of weeks later, advocates pressed forward with building a new station in Mobile. Ivey got elected to a full term but is less inclined to even support any type of passenger rail than her predecessor, who at least explored the possibility of a PPP before an impeachment threat forced him to step down.
GA: As to what the new governor will do in advancing passenger rail, your guess is as good as mine. If anything, Georgians may be better off hoping that Sir Richard’s venture serves the Atlanta-Charlotte market in the interim.
FL: It will be up to the public to push Ron DeSantis to implement a statewide rail system to connect Floridians. Over the past six or so years, region after region has expressed its interest in reviving rail service in some capacity. Now is the time to not only provide a system but to also prove that a state can develop on without Amtrak. Don’t just leave everything to Brightline/Virgin.
NC: Roy Cooper can now veto rail-unfriendly legislation, which would be a sigh of relief for mass transit.

Northeast
CT: We shall see if the new governor is more open to funding the Housatonic and New England Central routes now that the Hartford Line is finally up and running. 
MA: Conversely, we’ll also see if Charlie Baker and the legislature are able to produce any new routes in the Bay State.
ME: Hopefully, the Pine Tree State will move out of its neutral position and develop more routes.

Tackling the Headlines 83

Niagara Falls, NY opens new station, but no trains stop there
Take: It's likely that this scenario could play out in other places in the future, quite possibly in Jacksonville. After all, it has already played out this way in Atlanta where Amtrak refused to even consider relocating downtown.

Forgotten subway
Take: It's an insight to how far Cincinnati has been left in the dust.

No quick fixes for aging transit systems
Take: It's all about the public will. It's well past time that everybody pays attention to infrastructure issues and demands elected officials to properly fund infrastructure.

Talgos: From Wisconsin to Michigan to California
Take: This is a smart move given everything that has happened over the last year. Michigan was unable to close the deal for the trainsets Scott Walker walked away from the Madison extension and a desperate need for extra cars given that Nippon-Sharyo has jeopardized the stimulus-funded double decker car order.

Rail and the 2014 Midterms

Florida

Part 1

Only in the Sunshine State can up be down. Over the summer, Rachel Dovey and Fred Frailey talked about how backwards the rail picture was in the state--the Tea Party-backed incumbent governor Rick Scott backing the private All Aboard Florida against ex-governor Charlie Crist who clearly prefers the high speed project Scott scuttled.

Other actors in the AAF saga are Treasure Coast residents and politicians who have exhibited a nasty form of NIMBYism. It's like these people have never seen a train before. They chose to live near an area where a major railroad frequently runs trains so it's ridiculous for them to make all of those demands. I can't help but wonder if these residents are actually upset that after 14 years of unfulfilled promises Amtrak is still nowhere close to implementing East Coast service between Jacksonville and Miami. If Treasure Coast residents want someone to blame, they should be pointing the finger at the feds for not funding the route during stimulus mania. These alleged problems would have never come up if Amtrak were already running trains through the area.

Part 2

Now that Scott has been elected to a second term, All Aboard Florida should all but be in the clear to proceed so Treasure Coast residents need to get over themselves. It really is strange that the same governor who relied on a highly biased study to finish off an HSR project that operators like Virgin were ready to run could go down in history as the guy who restored Florida's status as a major passenger rail hub--albeit accidentally. 

As for Crist, it would have been next to impossible for him to have revived the Florida High Speed Rail route just due to the fact that he would've at best dealt with a House of Representatives who has zeroed out federal HSR funding ever since it flipped to the GOP four years ago. His adversarial stance towards AAF demonstrates the overall problem I have with most Democrats. The TC residents' resistance to private sector operators hurts passenger rail (a Metro Jacksonville moderator hit the nail on the head).

The biggest thing missing over the "which train project is better" debate is the fact that neither Crist nor Scott showed any interest in corridor service along existing routes. The way to have a robust system is to work with what you have. The infrastructure is in place so foresight and selecting operators committed to producing world class service are the only things needed.

Midwest

The only way passenger rail is going to advance in the Buckeye State is for communities and advocacy groups to continue taking the lead since John Kasich is guaranteed to leave Columbus in 2019. Given the recent fiasco in Indiana over the operation of the Hoosier State, I hope that All Aboard Ohio and other groups have enough foresight to talk to other operators about the Hoosier Extension and the Columbus-Chicago routes especially if Amtrak's a no-go.

Mark Dayton and Scott Walker won their reelection campaigns as well but by single digits. Dayton's DOT will continue picking up the whole price tab for not only the feasibility studies of a second Chicago-St. Paul frequency but when the trains actually operate. 

When it comes to the new equipment for the Midwestern trains, IL and MI will get their share and give WI leftovers. If anything, the Hiawathas will consist mostly of leftover Horizon Cars. Any Badger State resident hoping for rail service off of the Chicago-Milwaukee-La Crosse-St. Paul route had better pray that Ed Ellis not only turns the Varsity into a regular route but expands his shortline empire.

North Carolina

In Wake County, Democrats turned a 3-4 disadvantage on the Board of Commissioners into a 7-0 board. These results will make having a referendum on light rail easier. The trick will be convincing the voters to join its northwestern neighbors.

National Outlook

Barring a 2006-like backlash against right wing rule in D.C., HSR won't be getting a dime until 2023 at the earliest. Even though anti-HSR Californians will hold some powerful positions in the House and continue making life miserable for the CAHSR project, the nation's only Express HSR project to be funded with stimulus funds will rely on state and private sector financing until it begins service.

Amtrak will likely see its funding slashed--maybe even significantly--but the real question is whether the new Congress will allow real competition, which would be the national operator's primary threat. With both houses soon to be in the opposition's hands, the Grand Bargain should be front and center as the alternative to the now-myopic national HSR vision President Obama laid out 5 1/2 years ago. 

Noel Braymer's editorial on how Republicans are the only ones who can save the long distance trains may very well be tested now. In order to prove Amtrak's advocates wrong, the GOP should implement any one of the three suggestions Braymer laid out. Second, congressmen and women should talk to their constituents who are starving for more train service as well as advocacy groups who want more trains in their states but aren't relying on "America's Railroad."

TIGER grants will be phased out in all likelihood. The currently negotiated TIGER VII grants will be the last funds the Obama Administration gives out to rail operators of all stripes.

Random thoughts #10

1. The news out of Ohio is not surprising given who's in office. Yawn. Moving on. There's nothing to see here. Get back to me in 2019.
2. This Vancouver Sun article reminds me of people here in the States who want Amtrak to focus on only the Northeast Corridor. Both thoughts are preposterous. Furthermore, the writer has ties to the Rocky Mountaineer. Long distance travel should not be limited to the ultra wealthy.
3. The state of Oklahoma is about to make a grand mistake and thwart any private effort to launch intercity rail service. 

Tackling the Headlines

NOTE: This is a new feature where I will dissect the fallout of the most noteworthy news events.


Obama Administration redirects HSR money from OH and WIThirteen states are now the beneficiaries of almost $2 billion in stimulus funds that were destined for Columbus and Madison all thanks to the voters electing two anti-rail governors last month. I have no sympathy for the governors-elect or the people who voted for them in the first place. Everybody knew that Kasich and Walker specifically campaigned against rail extension in their states but they swept them in anyway. The only people that I feel sorry for are the folks who tried their hardest to educate the voters on the facts of rail travel.

Talgo is now following through on its pledge to leave the Badger State since Mr. "No Train" Walker has now cost his state jobs and money. Both governors in waiting were moronic for even suggesting that stimulus funds be used for highways when the administration explictly stated that the money must be used for passenger rail! So, if they are dumb enough to sue the president for the lost money, then a pox on their executive mansions!

Virgin recommits to HSR in the U.S.
After over a year and a half of being out of the spotlight, Virgin Trains once again expressed its interest in operating Florida's HSR route. It will be no easy task, given that Japan's JR Central expressed an interest almost a year ago to develop and operate the 84-mile route, SNCF last year drew up a detailed plan for the Sunshine State, and the Chinese are on everyone's heels with their own plans for Florida. But I do think that Branson's entrepreneurial spirit will make it a lot of fun for anyone who likes to see private involvement in rail.

Meanwhile, 3,000 miles to the west, Branson thinks that having a Las Vegas-Los Angeles train would be "great." Hmm, maybe he's looking at the Desert Lightning, which would also have an L.A.-Phoenix route as well as a Vegas to Phoenix route. If not, he could easily be the sixth hopeful to propose and eventually develop a route between the City of Lights and the City of Angels.

The Midterms and Rail

Last Tuesday, rail advocates were mostly wallowing in misery after anti-rail candidates won offices.

Wisconsin
Scott Walker campaigned as the guy who would pull the plug on the Hiawatha extension to Madison. Last Monday, outgoing governor Jim Doyle signed a deal with the feds to go ahead with construction of the route. However, construction was halted days after Walker's win. Even stranger still was the governor-elect's plea to Talgo to stay in the Badger State even though he was the one to create an anti-train site. If Walker really wants to focus on highways and stop the rail project, he will have to deal with the consequences like lost jobs, passengers in southeast WI continuing to ride outdated and unreliable Horizon cars, and putting the entire Chicago-Twin Cities HSR route in jeopardy.

Ohio
Ex-congressman John Kasich is even more serious about killing the 3C route than Walker is the Madison extension. The gubernatorial elections in OH and WI may have been more about the voters wanting to stick it to the president than anything else. Ergo, they should not complain when there's no dependable train service in their states in the upcoming years.

The fact that the Buckeye State's governor-elect was able to get away with calling the Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati route a 39 mph project when it was continuously disproven completely baffles me. The starting speed is 79 mph with long-term plans to provide a 110 mph speed.

John Kasich is not the only person responsible for letting a very sensible rail project become stillborn--the Ohio Rail Development Commission also deserves blame because they were the ones who relied on an Amtrak report from 2009. If the officials in Columbus had done their homework, then they would have at least talked to one or two other operators for a different analysis. After all, the PRIIA allows states to talk to other rail companies. There are various companies that are lining up to run intercity train routes in the U.S.

If the ORDC had taken a page from the folks out west, then Kasich would have been unable to spread his 39 mph lie and Amtrak would be looking behind its shoulder due to a second player providing service in a vital state.

Station Issues Part 1: Handling Multiple Operators

Based on the controversies over station locations in Florida and Cincinnati, it's worth evaluating the sensibility of having two primary train stations in the same city. In the pre-Amtrak era, such stations existed due to multiple railroads stopping in different parts of town. Now, some states will select new operators for high speed service. The location of where these trains will stop should depend on the operator, whether the station provides any connections to local transportation and other intercity trains and whether these three criteria can be met:

1) Distance. Separate stations exist to handle corridor and
long-distance trains. In the July 27 TWA, Mr. Lindley provided an
example of what could happen in the future when he brought up Phoenix.
If everything played out as he described, a new Airport Station would
serve commuter trains, intrastate express trains, and intercity trains
while Union Station would remain in place for commuter and express
trains;

2) Size or Company. Overcrowding forces a company to move to a less crowded station or to a new location. In big cities like Chicago (I'll address the city in my next entry), this means that there are multiple major stations. For other locations like growing Sun Belt communities, this may result in the company outbidding Amtrak building a new train station at a whole new location;

3) Speed. Different stations are set up to handle fast and
conventional train speeds. The stations between Tampa and Orlando
would be examples of such a unique experiment. The older facilities
would handle Amtrak and intrastate service while the new buildings
would cater only to high-speed trains.

Florida leaders have decided to separate its HSR stations by providing the (likely) foreign operator with stations north of the Miami area that will only handle high speed trains. Between Tampa and Orlando, only suburban locations and the Orlando Airport will be served. There'll be little or no connection to local transportation, the planned Sunrail project in central Florida, or Amtrak along the I-4 corridor.

On the other hand, Cincinnati's situation makes little sense because the Cardinal is not even a daily train and it's likely that Amtrak will run the 3C Route. As a result, there will be no connectivity with the 3C and the Cardinal. How the city can renovate a station and still not have any meaningful train service is beyond me! I would only hope that the Chicago-Cincinnati
HSR route would serve Union Terminal, but that is more long-term, regardless of which station the high-speed line calls home. The only way this makes any real sense is if there are separate operators for the 3C and the Chicago Hub routes. In essence, Cincinnati, fails the smell test because it doesn't meet any of the criteria listed above.

Official Reaction to Stimulus Funding

It's almost been two weeks since it was revealed which states would get the stimulus funds for high speed rail service. Now that I've had a chance to reflect on President Obama's allocation of the $8 billion of HSR money, the funding is a good start that must be continued on an at least yearly basis. Based on the allocation of funds, it looks like every funded incremental HSR route like the 3-C route will be operated by Amtrak.

For those people who thought that I was being too harsh on the Sunshine State, it was for good reason. Florida deserved stimulus money for restored East Coast service via Daytona Beach and the central Florida SunRail commuter project--but not high speed rail! Everyone in the rail community--ranging from the keep everything public camp to those who want passenger rail to be run like a business--has pointed out the HSR route's flaws.

There is little to no connectivity along the Tampa-Orlando leg. I've already pointed out the flaws between Tampa and Lakeland. When it comes to the Orlando situation, I don't know if anyone wants to do a lot of transferring. As for locals, the airport might as well be in another city when it comes to its proximity from the Amtrak station and also downtown Orlando.

The state doesn't have good conventional service. Two routes in the entire state (because at this point, we can easily dismiss any idea of Amtrak wanting to resume Sunset Limited service east of New Orleans)? How can anyone justify the nonsensical routing to and from Tampa? This brings me to rail advocates in the state. How on Earth did most of these advocates just sit on their hands and watch their once-proud train service dwindle to just two measly routes? Did most of these people just put their eggs in the HSR basket back in 2004 while ex-Amtrak president David Gunn was busy eliminating S-Line service? Why did so few people in Florida push for better Amtrak service in their state? Complementing frequent service would have alleviated any overcrowding on the Silver Service trains.

There's a right way to advance frequent rail service, and there's a wrong way. Ideally, the long distance network would be used to produce more frequencies between two major cities. The practice would continue until the route becomes saturated. At that time, regional service would be implemented with more stops being added along the line for the regional routes. Once the regionals become saturated, then high speed rail would be implemented. 

There has been a lot of bandwagon jumping by states that have little to no Amtrak service. Seriously, how can the Gulf Coast even be considered as a corridor when the Houston-New Orleans doesn't even have daily service? These states should have focused on more long-distance routes and starting up regional routes.

As a matter of fact, I would have cut off how many corridors were designated if I were in charge of the FRA. If a corridor walked away empty handed from the stimulus funds, it would have lost its designation. Based on this news, the Gulf Coast, South Central, and the Texas T-Bone routes would have gone back to the drawing boards.