Tackling the Headlines 100: The Finale

NOTE: The Hoosier State situation will be covered in a future article

Sweden and Night Trains
The Scandinavian country is doing something that was endangered just four years ago: Entering the European overnight market. This is an example of the government backing up its green agenda.

The funding portion would be like the government seeking an alternative operator to run a long distance route.

Amtrak's strategy
Over the last three months or so, Amtrak has made it clear that it doesn't really care about its originally mandated mission to provide a national system, and its leaders are emphasizing corridors instead. 

Given that Charlotte-Atlanta is on the railroad's radar, it should be clear that Amtrak is on the defensive since Virgin Trains already announced its plans for the same route six months ago. A few years ago, this route was complexly off the radar of "America's Railroad" and it was little more than a long-term thing planned by NCDOT and GADOT.

The thing is, Amtrak's record with the corridors it currently has is mostly lacking and the railroad has taken next to no initiative so this idea of focusing on corridors is typical of a reactive organization. When Richard Branson took over Brightline and announced its plans to develop corridors and even challenge Amtrak in its backyard, it was reminiscent of Joe Boardman's response to foreign entities submitting their bids to operate high speed rail a decade ago. 

Boardman got a reprieve as the 2010 elections curtailed HSR fever but Richard Anderson is unlikely to be as lucky because of how unpopular he already is among the rail public for his passenger-hostile approach. 

Detroit studies the obvious
A decade after members of the City Council recommended demolishing MCS, the Motor City's leaders are studying restoring passenger service to its crown jewel. However, it doesn't necessarily have to have Amtrak trains stopping there. A Chicago-Toronto HSR route could be set up either privately or like Eurostar.

Toledo may be taking rail into its own hands
A consultant has clearly been paying attention to Florida when he was tasked with tackling the feasibility of a Toledo-Ann Arbor/Detroit route. Linking Toledo with Southeast Michigan will be something that requires innovative thinking because the historical default partners are completely unreliable

The Ohio DOT is likely to continue putting highways above passenger rail even if the new governor isn't as bad on the latter as his predecessor. Meanwhile, Amtrak would give this T-shaped route the same treatment that it gave the 3C Route that it studied a decade ago. Also, any feasibility study done by Amtrak will result in exorbitant costs.

Clearing up the CAHSR mess
Whatever the new governor's motives, at least someone from the Authority clarified what's going on in Sacramento.

The future of UK rail franchising
Great Britain's rail operators want an independent body overseeing the network. If the railroads get their way on commuter routes, then it would be like the German model in a way--and it'd allow them to focus on intercity routes. I mean what's good for the goose (London) is good for the gander (Liverpool, Manchester, etc.), right?

Virgin being forced out in Britain
It looks like Sir Branson may flourish here while unraveling on his side of the Atlantic. His and Stagecoach's joint bid was disqualified over pension issues. Obviously a complex issue and it would be a shame if an innovative operator were driven out of its homeland.

Scaling back

It's time for another overhaul. Last month, Google+ was shuttered four months ahead of schedule due to another bug that was noticed in November. 

What now?

Given that G+ was the social media platform for me, it's a deep loss. Rather than getting lost on Facebook with its politics and the overall echo chamber, I have migrated to Diaspora. If you're so inclined, this is my page over there. I have also decided to take my advocacy over to Diaspora as well. This now means that my Tumblr will become a photos only page.

What about the blog?

I am taking a step back on this forum as blogging itself has lost its buzz and also because I have a lot of things going on in my personal life. My posts will be more like special attractions--for instance, I have reversed course and my next Tackling the Headlines column will be the last.

Passenger rail has moved at a snail's pace over the last few years as states have added the last of stimulus based corridor service and the current administration in D.C. has talked the talk about China having faster trains than us but has taken steps to defund Amtrak and revoke CAHSR money. 

Meanwhile, new Amtrak management is doing more damage than anything that might come out of the White House. Its CEO refuses to talk to the media and alienates just about everybody by continuing Boardman era practices of destaffing stations and also new stuff by eliminating charter service for example. The states are no closer to being innovative and continue with their inside the box thinking while continuing to ignore other operators who could provide better service than Amtrak offers. Also, where are all those new cars?

Virgin Trains USA may be a bright spot but we are now 13 months removed from the Saratoga & North Creek folding, meaning that we still have not had more than one privately operated passenger carrier at the same time since both the Georgia Railroad and the Rio Grande ceased services in April of 1983. Oh, did I mention that the only semblance of direct competition with Amtrak is a commuter route between Springfield, MA and New Haven, CT?

2018 Midterms and Rail

Here are my rapid fire responses to the midterms and their impact on passenger rail.

West Coast
CA: The incoming governor may shift which segments of CAHSR get built next. When it comes to the main opponents of the project, two out of the three are gone—Valadao and Denham lost their House races but McCarthy will become the new House Minority Leader.

Southwest
NM: Here’s to hoping that Michelle Lujan Grisham is vastly more pro-rail than her predecessor.

Midwest
MN: Maybe the second Chicago-Twin Cities frequency will accelerate now.
WI: Governor No Train is finally ousted and he lost based on a rule that he created that prevented a recount by a certain margin. Serves him right.
IA: Kim Reynolds holding onto the governor’s mansion and soon to be serving a full term means that a Quad Cities-Omaha extension will be off the table for at least another four years.
IL: Once the Quad Cities route gets up and running, the question is which route will be next on the agenda. The Black Hawk revival? Rockford service? Something else?
OH: Oh dear, Mike DeWine had the most ambiguous position out of the four gubernatorial candidates in regards to transit needs, which may mean the status quo in Columbus.

Southeast
AL: Earlier this year, Kay Ivey passed on providing money to reviving the Mobile-New Orleans Gulf Coast Limited route. That seemed to conclude a spat between the governor and the Southern Rail Commission but a couple of weeks later, advocates pressed forward with building a new station in Mobile. Ivey got elected to a full term but is less inclined to even support any type of passenger rail than her predecessor, who at least explored the possibility of a PPP before an impeachment threat forced him to step down.
GA: As to what the new governor will do in advancing passenger rail, your guess is as good as mine. If anything, Georgians may be better off hoping that Sir Richard’s venture serves the Atlanta-Charlotte market in the interim.
FL: It will be up to the public to push Ron DeSantis to implement a statewide rail system to connect Floridians. Over the past six or so years, region after region has expressed its interest in reviving rail service in some capacity. Now is the time to not only provide a system but to also prove that a state can develop on without Amtrak. Don’t just leave everything to Brightline/Virgin.
NC: Roy Cooper can now veto rail-unfriendly legislation, which would be a sigh of relief for mass transit.

Northeast
CT: We shall see if the new governor is more open to funding the Housatonic and New England Central routes now that the Hartford Line is finally up and running. 
MA: Conversely, we’ll also see if Charlie Baker and the legislature are able to produce any new routes in the Bay State.
ME: Hopefully, the Pine Tree State will move out of its neutral position and develop more routes.

Tackling the Headlines 99: Brightline Rebrands Itself

Earlier today, this happened seemingly out of nowhere. The Brightline-Virgin partnership is yet another surprise in an autumn of surprises. The others are as follows:

1. Brightline buying XpressWest 
2. Brightline setting the stage for future service by submitting a proposal for Orlando-Tampa extension 
3. Spanish operator RENFE being tapped by Texas Central to operate the Dallas-Houston Express HSR route 
4. A shortline railroad expressing interest in providing intercity service from northeastern Pennsylvania to New York City

The Return of Sir Richard
Almost eight years after when it looked like Rick Scott--and a rapidly changing environment--had driven Virgin Trains out of the U.S., Sir Richard Branson comes roaring back.

I was wondering just how a Virgin Trains USA would look like. Now, I know. Also, in addition to the West Coast pickup, Sir Branson could very well be providing service to the underserved Charlotte-Atlanta market and the completely unserved 3C market in Ohio sooner than anyone thinks.

The New Passenger Paradigm Strikes Again
There have been times over the last two years where I have wondered if outside forces would stymie Ray Chambers's vision of a new paradigm. As it turns out, things sometimes move slower than advocates for change like.

What the rebranding means for Virgin Trains USA: Branson will now lay claim to having a national company. 

What the rebranding means for the public: For Florida, it means that untapped markets and the previously thought to be dead HSR route will be served while also being a real estate and hospitality entity. 

For California, it will make it easier for passengers to travel between Los Angeles and Las Vegas--and directly, too. 

For the Southeast, a high speed alternative to the once-a-day Crescent route along an express route while travelers don't have to put all of their eggs the southeastern states' basket. Virginia and North Carolina have it together for the first portion of the Southeast Corridor lined up. However, the latter's partnership with South Carolina and Georgia is shakier and trying to get additional frequencies on the existing Norfolk Southern route--never mind the CSX route for Raleigh to Jacksonville service--is rife with politics.

For Ohio, a chance to start anew after nearly four decades of false promises and a chance to provide an essential service to a part of a state that has been ignored.

What the rebranding means for the passenger industry: Three European entities are now in position to rewrite the passenger rail experience in America. DB (Germany) is locked to run Express routes in California, RENFE is going to run Express service in Texas, and the UK's Virgin is providing higher speed rail service to multiple states. Those who fail to adapt will be left by the wayside.

Google+ to be discontinued

On October 8, Google announced that it would be shutting down by the end of next August due to private user information being made public and low usage.

What it means for this blog:

• The ban on cross-posting between G+ and the blog is lifted retroactively to October 9
• The same also applies to Tumblr
• I had planned on retiring my Tackling the Headlines feature after the 100th entry, but now, it will continue
• Massive overhauls of the blog and Tumblr will occur early next year and will be completed by late summer 2019

Tackling the Headlines 98

I'm doing something a bit different--rapid fire responses to recent topics:

• Amtrak announces Amfleet I replacement
• Southwest Chief could be replaced with buses
• Portion of Catskills Mountain RR to be turned into a trail
• New stations open in Marks, MS and Raleigh

One Big Take: It's nice and all that Amtrak is finally talking about replacing equipment that's nearly a half century old but, the company should have made it is main focus a couple of summers ago instead of replacing Acelas that are less than two decades old. The Southwest Chief situation is yet another reason for the private sector to jump in because Amtrak no longer cares about overnight travelers even though the demand is there. The CMRR is an ominous sign for the Adirondack Scenic Railroad and railroad advocates must be vigilant since the governor of New York is on the side of elitists. It's about time that both cities opened their new stations.

Alternative History #7

Scenario

An agreement is reached between Florida East Coast management and employees, averting a strike

Point of Departure

1963

Storyline A (Seaboard merges with Southern and the ACL merges with N&W)
Amtrak doesn’t serve Florida in 1971 since the three Class I railroads still do. Governor Lawton Chiles chooses corridor service over the high speed Florida Overland Express in 1996, effectively killing future efforts for high speed rail in the state. The Florida Rail System is formed the following year.

In 1993, the Norfolk Coast Line interlines its Gulf Wind route with Amtrak to provide true bicoastal service. A dozen years later, Amtrak withdrew its support citing unreliable Union Pacific timekeeping out west.

Today’s Likely Outcome

There are only modest changes to the schedules.  

Storyline B (the Ripley Plan is adopted)

The FEC became a subsidiary of Southern Railway long before the 1970s in the same way the LIRR is a subsidiary of the ACL (the FEC route officially became a Southern route in 1992). 

In 1997, Congress responded to growing state interest in corridor service by transferring routes that are less than 500 miles long to the states. It was at this point that the former FEC routes were handed over to the FL DOT. Eleven years later, Congress increased the corridor length to 750 miles in response to interstate pacts.

Today’s Likely Outcome

East Coast service is increased alongside Southern’s presence in Florida. There are two overnight frequencies along the route. Due to the increase in intrastate service, the railroads alter their schedules so that certain trains provide overnight service in Florida

Storyline C (the SCL holds out of joining Amtrak)
The Southeast Rail Coalition was formed in the late 1980s to expand passenger rail in Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida so passengers have more daytime options. 
FEC rebranded its overnight routes in 2001 as a premium, all-sleeper service. A few years later, other Class I railroads were so envious of CSX’s success that they got Congress to pass a provision in PRIIA that allows intercity competition against Amtrak.
The Miami Intermodal Center opened ten years ago and continues to serve Amtrak, CSX and FL DOT passenger trains.

Today’s Likely Outcome

Amtrak’s frequency remains as is, CSX promotes several routes to year-round status, the FEC has added another roundtrip, and the FL DOT system continues its expansion.

Storyline D (the FEC competes with Amtrak for Jacksonville-Miami passengers)

Throughout the 1970s, the FEC was very leery of interlining with Amtrak due to there being no other private railroads available. In the mid to late 1980s, FEC agreed to allow commuter service in South Florida as I-95 is being widened. About a decade later, Tri-Rail’s service between downtown Miami and Jupiter intrigues state officials so much that it explores similar service along the CSX route. The result was the 1998 launch of Amtrak Florida. With double decker cars in tow, the first routes the state launched were Orlando-Miami and Tampa-Miami. The state extended service to Jacksonville in 2000 along both the A and S Lines. A daytime Jacksonville-Pensacola route was launched in 2005, months before Hurricane Katrina suspended Sunset Limited service east of New Orleans.

At the turn of the millennium, Amtrak targeted Southwest Florida as a part of its short-lived Mail & Express expansion plan. In late 2004, the national carrier decided to pull out of the Tampa market rather than the S-Line once it terminated carrying mail (the Silver Star is put back on the route once the Palmetto is cut back to Savannah). Sunrail launched service in 2006 without any difficulties.

In the fall of 2011, FL DOT objected to the Section 209 PRIIA provisions and terminated its agreement with Amtrak two years later (this move made Indiana the second state to hold out of the PRIIA standards), opting to contract with Sunrail operator Bombardier at the beginning of 2014.

The FEC did a massive rebranding campaign in 2012: Local stops service became Coastal, night service became the Owl, and a new limited stop service was originally named All Aboard Florida (now known as Brightline) in advance of expansion to Tampa. 

Today’s Likely Outcome
The FEC opened new stations in Jacksonville, West Palm Beach, and Fort Lauderdale in 2014 with Miami Central replacing the old downtown location the following year. Service to Orlando Airport began two years ago while the extension to Tampa opened in time for the Memorial Day weekend last month. FEC now has over 40 frequencies around the clock as a result of the rebranding and expansion.


Divorcing itself from Amtrak has paid the FL DOT huge dividends as it rebranded the rail service as FLORail, added new frequencies, expanded to new cities, acquired new equipment, and taken over certain stations previously neglected by Amtrak. FLORail trains also serve the historic station in Jacksonville and the Miami Airport Station. The former was the result of FL DOT’s vision to relocate corridor trains and the latter happened because the state wanted to make things easier for airport travelers. One of FLORail’s biggest hits is the Panhandle route (a feasibility study on extending service to New Orleans is underway). Southwest Florida service to Venice and Naples is also in the works. 

As for Amtrak? Having its role reduced to being a bit player in the state, it decided to end service to smaller cities and to limit its southbound stops to discharge only and its northbound stops to receive only so no one can travel locally within Florida on Amtrak any more.