A Strategy for the '28 Olympics

If Amtrak were to get on the same page with either Caltrans and Nevada DOT (or both), it could counter Brightline West’s pending service just in time for the next Summer Olympics in three steps.

The first step would be to roll out conventional Los Angeles-Las Vegas service with four or five roundtrips during the Olympic Games (and then cutting back to its planned two roundtrips as per ConnectsUS afterwards). Part of the inspiration comes from this article from 2021.

Secondly, if Amfleets, Horizon Cars or surplus cars from California prove to be unavailable, then, the soon to be discontinued Talgo Cars should be the first backup plan once the Cascades get the new Airo equipment. Another strategy would be to borrow commuter equipment that isn’t being used and tidy it up until Amtrak can get its older fleet to the West Coast.

Finally, there’s the marketing aspect. Since Brightline West would easily outpace Amtrak on speed and amenities, Amtrak, Caltrans and Nevada should hit the HSR operator on its weak spot: The lack of a direct connection to L.A. Union Station. Brightline West will initially have its southern terminus in Rancho Cucamonga where passengers will have to transfer to/from Metrolink. Until Brightline West can build a direct connection there, provide its own shuttle train westward or the High Desert Corridor opens, some last-minute passengers might choose Amtrak over Brightline West based on that alone. Easy marketing for the Olympics: “We have the only direct route to the Olympics. You have to change trains while traveling with the other guys.” (Note: this could work the other way around for Super Bowls to Vegas)

The Floridian is coming back...sort of

For the first time in 45 years, Amtrak is providing direct Chicago-Florida service, but if you read the fine print--from the horse's mouth itself--it becomes evident very quickly that it's just a combination of the Silver Star and Capitol Limited and that it's only happening because the East River Tunnels in NYC are being rehabilitated.

This temporary route will use the Broadway Limited/Three Rivers old numbers of 40 and 41, which may be more of a preview of the Long Distance Service Study version of the Floridian, which will serve Atlanta instead of Birmingham (side note: since the Midwest Connect route is a corridor route, it's very likely that the Chicago-Fort Wayne-Columbus-Pittsburgh route will get triple-digit numbers).

What this means for the long-heralded New York-Florida service is that it will once again be reduced to one frequency. For most of 2022, it was the Silver Star that was picking up the slack while the Silver Meteor was suspended due to Covid-19 related issues. Now, it'll be the Meteor having to ferry all the people north of D.C. This is where an extended Palmetto would have been helpful.